Find Me a 100 Winner: Outsider picks for the Maybank and Valspar

Golfer Chesson Hadley
Chesson Hadley's excellent approach play is just the ticket for Copperhead
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Fresh off a near miss and highly profitable week at the Players, Paul Krishnamurty runs through his best outsider bets on both tours...

"One way of beating the market these days is identifying Asian players who are little-known in Europe and the USA and therefore under-rated in the betting. Could Chang be one?"

Back Yikeun Chang 2u @ [400.0]

Although it ultimately proved a case of 'close, but no cigar', what a great run Jim Furyk gave us at the Players and what a fantastic tournament!

Regardless of any personal bets, I felt vindicated by highlighting the return to a March slot. A softer Sawgrass is perhaps the best course around for trading. Why? Because while virtually every hole there is a potential disaster waiting to strike, in soft conditions they are all birdie opportunities too. Fluctuation is inevitable. It was a remarkably similar renewal to the 2006 renewal won by Fred Funk, noted in last week's piece.

Moving on, both of this week's events are well worth an interest from an outsider-punting perspective. First to the Maybank Championship, where Steve Rawlings makes a solid argument that early R1 starters will enjoy an advantage in his comprehensive preview.

If that proves the case, it is quite a considerable trading angle. Given that I already think both of these selections are over-priced, were either to take advantage with a solid start, the lay targets could move into range quicker than is usually the case.

Schwab has his best chance yet in 2019

Back Matthias Schwab 2u @ [110.0]
Place order to lay 30u @ [6.0]

Long-term readers may recall Schwab featuring in this column a few times last season, with some success. The young Austrian was very consistent during his rookie season and is a strong first-time winner candidate.

This is the first time I've backed Schwab this term because he didn't appear particularly well suited to the Gulf events. Finishing 31st or better in three of them was respectable enough and he's still only missed one cut since September. If handling the climate, Saujana GC looks much more in order and he's ideally drawn in the second group out.

The name of the game here is quality iron play, to find the small greens, and scrambling well when inevitably missing plenty. Schwab's approach play is generally excellent - seventh among these last term for strokes gained approach - and he is an outstanding scrambler. Only five of this field rank better this term, compared to six last season.

Chang could be under the market radar

Back Yikeun Chang 2u @ [400.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [40.0]
Place order to lay 25u @ [10.0]

One way of beating the market these days is identifying Asian players who are little-known in Europe and the USA and therefore under-rated in the betting. Could Chang be one? On recent numbers, he certainly looks better than a [400.0] chance.

The 25 year-old has won twice and contended regularly on a variety of Asian tours. That form is always hard to measure against this standard but, since moving up, he's thrived. Chang's last five starts were either in co-sanctioned affairs or the competitive Singapore Open. He made all five cuts and the top-20 in four of them.

A quick word about alternatives. I've backed Scott Vincent before on these pages and am adamant the Zimbabwean is under-rated at odds of [260.0] - especially returning to Asia. With a morning start, he would definitely have been a pick. One more among the early starters to make the shortlist is Ashley Chesters at [170.0] - this ultra-accurate type should be well-suited to Saujana.

Hadley worth another chance at inflated odds

Back Chesson Hadley 2u @ [270.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [25.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [10.0]

It would be no great surprise were Copperhead to produce something similar to last weekend's entertainment. As Steve explains in his preview, the Valspar Championship isn't a great event for front-runners and leaderboards are usually fairly bunched up. The required skills-set is pretty similar too. Steady, accurate types hitting quality approaches should thrive.

As any golf punter will testify, a perennial source of massive irritation is selections producing the goods a week after backing them in vain. I won't aftertime by listing them, but it has happened a lot in the past year to this column!

Therefore, I must persist with Chesson Hadley because precisely the same arguments apply as they did before he missed the Sawgrass cut. Failing in one round there really doesn't say much about form, and previously Hadley had finished top-20 on three of his last four starts.

Statistically, he appears to have credentials that amount to much less than odds of [270.0]. Hadley ranks ninth for strokes gained approach both this season and last and is rated as a Bermuda greens specialist by Future of Fantasy.

Two alternatives made the shortlist. Roberto Castro [340.0] is another known for his stellar iron play and he's playing better of late. Finally, Sam Burns is a Bermuda specialist and played really well when 12th on debut last year. I note he's among Steve's picks at [350.0] and certainly wouldn't deter a bet at those odds.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2019 Stats:

+35.5 units

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