Find Me a 100 Winner: Outsider picks for the KLM Open and Greenbrier Classic

Brian Stuard has some previous at The Old White

Paul Krishnamurty recommends a trio of selections available to back at 199-1 or higher on this week's two events...

"I am surprised to see the runaway winner of that Rocket Mortgage Classic trading so high...Stats-wise, Lashley fits the bill in all key respects."

Back Nate Lashley 2u @ 210.0209/1

Following a run of tournaments which were largely expected to be dominated by market leaders, and mostly turned out that way, we are spoilt for choice this week. A new venue for the KLM Dutch Open and perhaps the likeliest PGA Tour event on the calendar to produce a shock winner.

First to The Netherlands and a new course that involves a degree of guesswork - Steve Rawlings previews the event here. He's predicting low scoring in benign conditions.

Lagergren should like the linsky feel

Back Joakim Lagergren 2u @ 200.0199/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay 25u @ 8.07/1

The course appears similar to other Dutch Open venues - a short, inland links - so it may well pay to focus on form in the easier UK links events. Lagergren has often gone well in such events, most notably the Dunhill Links, where he's finished top-12 three times.

A streaky type who makes plenty of birdies, there's a lot to like about Lagergren's recent activity. Last week he left an opening 77 behind to make the top-20, and he was tenth in last month's Scandinavian Invitation. He also finished ninth in this event two years ago and 20th in 2016.

Two alternatives came in for consideration - both recommended in our each-way column. Jamie Donaldson 120.0119/1 is my pick while Joe Dyer has gone for links specialist Matthew Southgate 140.0139/1.

Greenbrier an ideal event for outsider punts

As Steve explains in his comprehensive preview of The Greenbrier Classic, even the predictable winners of this annual birdie-fest could hardly have been described as obvious.

I think we're looking for an accurate type, who will avoid trouble and set up relentless birdie opportunities, who can putt well enough on Bentgrass greens to keep up with the inevitably low scoring. Par-four performance is also very important around this par-70.

Accurate Stuard has right credentials

Back Brian Stuard 2u @ 200.0199/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay 25u @ 8.07/1

Steve notes a correlation with the Sony Open and that must bode well for Stuard, who has a quartet of top-eight finishes at that Waialae venue and was sixth here in 2013.

A short-hitter who can't compete on numerous courses, Stuard has been playing well nonetheless, making most of his cuts. He was fifth at the not dissimilar Rocket Mortgage Classic in June. Over the last six months among these, he's sixth for driving accuracy and 14th for putting. On last year's PGA Tour he was a respectable 45th for Par 4 Birdies or Better.

Back Nate Lashley 2u @ 210.0209/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay 25u @ 8.07/1

I am surprised to see the runaway winner of that Rocket Mortgage Classic trading so high. Lashley's form did not come out of nowhere - I put him at 500.0499/1 in this column a few weeks prior, and he's shown bits and pieces since, such as a top-20 in elite company at the St Jude.

Stats-wise, he fits the bill in all key respects. 11th among these for Par 4 Birdie or Better and fifth for the important Strokes Gained: Approach. Lashley also ranks sixth among these for putting over the past 12 months.

Redman and Straka the best alternatives

First reserve here is Doc Redman at 180.0179/1, who was runner-up to Lashley in that Detroit birdie-fest. A top-20 finish in the Open Championship confirmed this youngster's potential. Sam Ryder 180.0179/1 is a good iron player who putts better on Bentgrass.

Finally a word for Sepp Straka at 110.0109/1. He is an almost perfect statistical fit and looked a first-time winner-in-waiting heading into the play-offs. He's making his course debut, which is a slight negative, but keep an eye on this promising Austrian.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2019 Stats:

+23 units

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