It must be said, making 35 units profit from last week's column was particularly satisfying - in some respects more so than actually backing a winner! The perfect illustration and vindication of trading, as opposed to merely betting.
Neither Joakim Lagergren or Nate Lashley were in contention when it mattered for the tournament, but earlier runs had caused their odds to crash, enabling a profitable cashout. Such bits of luck compensate for all the near-misses that are an inevitable occupational hazard, especially in golf.
Long history of Wentworth upsets
Again, we're playing both main tournaments this week. First to the flagship European Tour event - the BMW PGA Championship. For a detailed overview of the tournament, betting trends and market leaders, check out Steve Rawlings' preview.
This longstanding Wentworth fixture has produced more than its share of huge upsets, some of which were unfathomable - Scott Drummond, Andrew Oldcorn for example. More recently Byeong-Hun An was tipped here at 180.0179/1 before his 2015 win.
Back Mikko Korhonen 0.5u @ 420.0419/1
Back Mikko Korhonen for a Top 20 Finish 1.5u @ 8.07/1
More recently this elite event has been dominated by favourites but their presence means vastly inflated odds about highly capable outsiders. Take the fact 420.0419/1 is available about this selection - eight times his odds for last week's event!
I'm convinced Korhonen has what it takes for Wentworth. Tee-to-green accuracy has always been the key and that is his forte. Last year on only his second appearance at a course that really takes some learning, the Finn spent much time on the first page of the leaderboard en route to an excellent 15th place.
Besides the course positives, these odds are an insult to a player who has won in both of the last two seasons, most recently at May's China Open. Although Mikko hasn't done anything special since, he's made his last six cuts and his penultimate start at Crans included rounds of 64 and 65.
Pepperell rated best value alternative
In such a competitive field, a case could be made for dozens of alternatives. I'll therefore restrict comments to a few. Eddie Pepperell first caught the eye on this course and is very appealing at 120.0119/1. Andy Sullivan 260.0259/1 has finished no worse than 35th on his last five visits.
At 320.0319/1, Jordan Smith is another who I'm sure will thrive here eventually. Finally from our each-way picks, Joe Dyer's selection Alexander Bjork just sneaks into our range at 100.099/1.
Non-winners worth chancing at Jackson
We can look at past results of the Sanderson Farms Championship two ways. It is either a lottery - as the rollcall of first-time winners suggests - or the perfect event to back outsiders. Given the plethora of clues noted by Steve Rawlings in his preview, I'll plump for the latter.
So what do we know? This will be a birdie-fest, with the emphasis on setting up chances with good iron play and holing plenty of putts on Bermuda greens. Players from the South, without a win, go well. Steve notes correlations with various courses.
Back Adam Schenk 2u @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 10.09/1
Lets start with a non-winner at this level whose short PGA Tour career has nonetheless produced several good finishes. Schenk was seventh in this last year, the same position at the Texas Open and very creditable 13th in elite company at the Wells Fargo.
More recently, he was sixth in the John Deere, 18th at the Barbasol (both a similar grade to this), plus 24th in the much stronger Northern Trust. Schenk averaged a birdie every 3.97 holes last season - 43rd on the overall list, largely behind world-class players not in this field.
One more clue - Steve notes a correlation with the United Leasing Championship on the KornFerry Tour. Schenk is a former runner-up.
Back Josh Teater 0.5u @ 420.0419/1
Back Josh Teater for a Top Ten Finish 1u @ 19.018/1
Here's one very much from left-field - a 40 year-old from Kentucky who has only ever won once, on the Kornferry Tour, a decade ago. A huge ask but this tournament throws up miracle winners and there are plenty of positive about Teater.
He recently put together an excellent three weeks on the spin in low scoring events - finishing top-13 at the Wyndham, Barbasol and Barracuda. He has good form at Colonial - another track with a correlation - with three top-20 finishes from six.
Moreover, Teater's stats read really well for this test. Last season he was 43rd for strokes gained: approach and 55th for birdie average. Both are very competitive lists and his position is way above what we'd expect given his wider numbers. His putting is also much better on Bermuda.
Gomez interesting at dismissive odds
Fabian Gomez makes the shortlist at 290.0289/1 and is first reserve. He's a two-time winner including at another connected track - Southwind - and has been in good form on the Kornferry Tour.
Brice Garnett 160.0159/1 has made the top-ten here before and is another with good recent form in low-scoring events. Andrew Landry 140.0139/1 is another from the South who should like this challenge.
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