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Find Me a 100 Winner: A trio of outsider picks to follow on both tours

Golfer Cameron Tringale
Cameron Tringale has a strong chance in his home state
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Paul Krishnamurty runs through his best outsider bets and alternatives on this week's pair of golf events...

"Herbert hits it a mile and makes plenty of birdies...one would assume he would like a low-scoring pro-am."

Back Lucas Herbert 1.5u @ [270.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [20.0]

This is one of those weeks where all three selections could easily have come from the same event. The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship isn't an obvious paradise for outsiders but the strength of the field means several stand out at huge odds. On the other hand, the Safeway Open is fertile territory.

Numerous links experts appeal in Scotland

I'll start by saying that two of our quintet of each-way picks could easily have been the top selection. In fact all five are above [100.0] on the exchange.

I'm particularly sweet on Padraig Harrington, either at 100/1 each-way or [210.0] on the exchange. Likewise, Steve Rawlings' pick Eddie Pepperell looks an each-way steal at 100/1, given his tremendous record on links. However as we prefer to offer variety on these pages, lets look beyond them.

Autumn may be best time to follow Herbert

Back Lucas Herbert 1.5u @ [270.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [20.0]

At [270.0], Lucas Herbert gets the nod. As argued many times in a previous, highly productive, rookie season, this young Aussie is a top prospect. He hits it a mile and makes plenty of birdies. Ideally, therefore, one would assume he would like a low-scoring pro-am.

This of course is no ordinary pro-am, because they are playing on links, but Herbert showed a liking for it when seventh on his tournament debut 12 months ago. Eighth place in Crans signalled a return to form and a follow-up 22nd was decent enough. He found his best at almost exactly the same time last year and very nearly won for us in Portugal - again in a birdie-fest.

For deeper analysis of the event, check out Steve Rawlings' preview here. I note one of his picks is Andy Sullivan at [250.0] - he too made my shortlist.

Check accuracy and scrambling at Silverado

Despite the Safeway Open being of a relatively ordinary standard for the PGA Tour, the field is as usual packed with capable types that pop up frequently in this column as a selection or alternative. It is hard not to bite when you see odds in excess of [400.0] about people you backed in the last month but the one I like, Nate Lashley, is just short of our range at [95.0].

Back Cameron Tringale 2u @ [140.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [10.0]

In his comprehensive tournament preview, Steve argues that scrambling is the key stat to follow, and that certainly makes sense given the small greens. Equally important is accurate iron play to those Poa Annua surfaces so greens in regulation and strokes gained: approach are also worth particularly close inspection.

Playing in his home state, this looks a great opportunity for Cameron Tringale to step up on consistently good form. In 13 starts since March, he's made the top-25 eight times, twice landing a top-five place.

Last season he ranked a respectable 44th strokes gained: approach and, over the last year amongst these, he's eighth for greens in regulation and 27th for scrambling.

San Antonio offers useful correlation

Steve also reports a great tip from Ben Coley, regarding the correlation between this event and Texas Open form. Tringale has twice finished top-eight at San Antonio, during less productive stages of his career.

Back Andrew Landry 1.5u @ [340.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [20.0]
Place order to lay 25u @ [6.0]

That useful angle leads me to Andrew Landry, who won the Texas Open in 2017. Apart from a respectable 64th in strokes gained: approach, he didn't stand out on the stats but, in keeping with the other lesser names Ben mentioned, his form transfers well, finishing seventh on his first look at Silverado.

As interesting are his recent numbers. Third place at the John Deere is the highlight but 19th at the much more competitive Wyndham, followed by 30th in the elite Northern Trust reads well. This is better form than reflected by odds of [340.0].

First reserve is Sam Ryder at [270.0] - a good iron player and decent scrambler. Likewise Greenbrier runner-up Tom Hoge [210.0] is best on tracks that emphasise good approach play. He's in good form right now and, were it not for a dire record in California, he'd have been a pick.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2019 Stats:

+56.5 units

Paul Krishnamurty,

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