Find Me a 100 Winner: Three outsiders to follow in the South African Open

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Overseas players have dominated recent SA Open renewals
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Paul Krishnamurty's weekly outsider-hunting column takes in the South African Open. Check out his trio of selections at 99-1 plus here...

"Only four of this field registered a higher birdie average on last season's European Tour than Jeff Winther - all of whom are prominent in the betting."

Back Jeff Winther @ [250.0]

The South African Open is our sole focus this week - an event which surprisingly has been won by a home player only once in the last seven years. As Steve Rawlings explains in his tournament preview, this is the second renewal of 2018, following a rather bizarre decision to merge it with the Joburg Open. It now involves 240 players and two courses.

Form indicators aren't, consequently, all that clear. Low scoring is expected, bringing putting and birdie average to the fore, while long-hitters could enjoy a good advantage.

Classy Vincent looks dangerous in this grade

Back Scott Vincent 2u @ [100.0]
Place order to lay 25u @ [6.0]

Dave Tindall was quick off the blocks this morning in picking Scott Vincent for our each-way column and I'm amazed to see this classy type trading within our triple-figure price range. Long off the tee, consistently near the very top of the gir stats in most events and a decent putter, the Zimbabwean is a prospect tipped to breeze past many of those higher up this market in due course.

It is never easy to weigh form on the minor tours but in a globe-trotting schedule, Vincent has maintained a high level wherever he's played. He fared well last winter in South Africa, finishing fourth in this event, 13th at the Tshwane Open and 30th at the Joburg.

South African birdie-fest could be ideal for Winther

Back Jeff Winther 2u @ [250.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [25.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [10.0]

Next, let's take huge odds about an outsider who should love a birdie-fest. Only four of this field registered a higher birdie average on last season's European Tour than Jeff Winther - all of whom are prominent in the betting.

The 30-year-old Dane has had a few good finishes just below contention at that level, producing most of his best form either on the Challenge Tour or, interestingly, in South Africa. He was runner-up in the 2016 Tshwane Open and made the top-20 in the last two renewals of this famous old event.

In-form Korean could be under-estimated

Back Hyo-Won Park 2u @ [300.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [25.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [10.0]

Again the question of comparing minor tours is relevant here. If Korean Tour form is to be respected - and given the number of quality golfers emerging from the country I think it should - then [300.0] about Hyo-Won Park is too big.

Park has been on fire at that level, winning at the start of the month following a spate of near misses. A subsequent top-20 at the Hong Kong Open - a stronger field than this one - also reads well and he closed with 68 for a solid enough top-40 in Mauritius on his first ever start outside the various Asian Tours.

Sunshine Tour form hasn't been much of a guide to recent renewals but odds between [290.0] and [500.0] about Louis de Jager, Alex Haindl and Garth Mulroy caught the eye given their pedigree at that level. So did [110.0] about Jaco Van Zyl, who has good course form and hinted at a return to form last week.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2018 Profit/Loss

-92 units

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