We were sorely tempted to rename the column to 'find a needle in a haystack' this week, because our task becomes considerably tougher at this time of year. There are no players trading at 99-1 or bigger for the Hero World Challenge and a lack of depth at both the Mauritius Open and Australian PGA Championship means we are mostly dealing with players who are either badly out of form, or making a big step up in class.
Connelly much better than dismissive odds
Back Austin Connelly 2u @ 350.0349/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 30.029/1
Place order to lay 25u @ 10.09/1
Under the circumstances, it might make sense looking for somebody who is merely capable of a lot better, irrespective of recent form. Here's one that fits the criteria. Austin Connelly looked a serious prospect when finishing 14th at the 2017 Open Championship, hanging around in contention for a long way. A couple of months later, the 22 year-old Canadian would lose a play-off for the KLM Open.
Such achievements read extraordinarily well at this level but, after a disappointing 2018, Austin is a forgotten man, trading down at 350.0349/1. He isn't totally without form though, with four top-20s to his name on last season's European Tour, including a competitive 11th in the KLM. He hasn't played for over a month so hopefully something has clicked in practice.
Try these in-form Sunshine Tour stars
Back Alex Haindl 2u @ 220.0219/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 15.014/1
Likewise in Mauritius, there aren't many appealing candidates at 99-1 or better. Steve Rawlings recommends an interesting one in Hennie Otto at 120.0119/1 in his comprehensive preview. Given that he was basically derailed by one terrible round here in 2016, and has a stack of co-sanctioned form, this is a tempting price but in the interests of diversity, here are a couple of bigger-priced alternatives.
Sunshine Tour form is certainly a good indicator for this event so odds of 220.0219/1 about the man currently in second place on that Order of Merit must at least warrant consideration. Haindl won as recently as September and is certainly long enough off the tee for this course. I reckon this is basically a second-shot course and in that respect, hitting 76% of greens in regulation over the past 15 weeks reads very well.
Back Jake Roos 2u @ 240.0239/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 25.024/1
Place order to lay 15u @ 10.09/1
Similarly this Sunshine Tour regular appeals at more than double his best High Street odds, via the exchange. Roos has won six times at that level and twice on the Challenge Tour. He's enjoyed a consistent and productive summer, finishing runner-up three times. He is sixth on the Order of Merit.
The stats suggest Roos should enjoy this week's test. He's pretty long off the tee and has hit more than 70% of greens in regulation over the past 15 weeks. Moreover, he tops the Sunshine Tour's birdie average numbers - which could be an important clue given the forecast calm conditions.
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