With no shortage of plausible outsider picks for the annual pro-am birdie-fest at St Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns, Paul Krishnamurty has settled on a pair of big-priced candidates with plenty of prowess on links courses...
"One of the most promising players without a win on this main tour, Broberg has plenty of links pedigree, finishing third and second in last year's Irish and Scottish Opens. He was also runner-up on an exposed, linksy track in Denmark only five starts ago."
Three of the last four winners of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship begun the week well in excess of 100.099/1, and there was no shortage of triple-figure priced players under serious consideration for this column. Indeed, it was quite staggering to see certain characters trading this high, and whittling down the shortlist to a manageable size was a tough call.
Most notably, Steve Rawlings' 120.0119/1 outright and each-way selection Tyrell Hatton started favourite for a European Tour event about a month ago. In effect, this is a response to one round of 72 that meant missing a low KLM Open cut, despite coming off an excellent top-25 in the USPGA!
Equally, two of my four players to follow during the autumn - Rikard Karlberg and Ryan Fox - are in range at 100.099/1 and 300.0299/1 respectively. Nevertheless, the necessity of setting a makeable lay target meant restricting selections to the following pair.
Kristoffer Broberg illustrates another perfect example of market over-reaction at odds of 150.0149/1. One of the most promising players without a win on this main tour, Broberg has plenty of links pedigree, finishing third and second in last year's Irish and Scottish Opens. He was also runner-up on an exposed, linksy track in Denmark only five starts ago. Again, these huge odds seem driven by one bad round last Friday.
Anthony Wall has nothing like the same potential, but the Englishman has a better record here than odds of 300.0299/1 imply. Wall was runner-up in the 2006 renewal and fifth in 2008, (despite a disastrous second round 76). Perhaps his best St Andrews effort, though, came when finishing 12th in this year's Open Championship, one of eight top-20s this term.
The trading advice is to stake three units in total on the pair, then place lay orders on both at 15.014/1 and 3.02/1, with a view towards banking a profit in-running. If either man hits the first lay target, we'll be guaranteed to quadruple our money at least.
Back Kristoffer Broberg 2u @ 160.0159/1
Back Anthony Wall 1u @ 300.0299/1
Place order to lay both players 12u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1
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