Paul Krishnamurty says there's no better time to be backing outsiders than at this week's PGA Tour event. Read his preview and trading plan here...
"At 230.0229/1, Canadian left-hander David Hearn looks a no-brainer trade. His last five visits at Summerlin yielded four top-30s, including a couple of top-sevens. He showed good form as recently as August."
So far as the purposes of this outsider-hunting column is concerned, there is quite simply no better event in the golfing calendar than the annual Las Vegas fixture currently known as the Shriners Hospital for Children Open.
As Steve Rawlings explains in his detailed tournament preview, the past rollcall of winners is littered with huge-priced winners. The last two - Smylie Kaufman and Ben Martin - were big enough, well in excess of 200.0199/1, but in the previous decade three winners were matched at or close to the maximum odds of 1000.0.
The path to success at Summerlin requires a very low total, so the key stats to follow must involve putting and birdies. Both of this year's picks score well on at least one of those measures, and have shown some form on this course previously.
In his two years at this level, Adam Hadwin hasn't set the PGA Tour alight but has developed a reputation as a fine putter, topping the stats between 5-10 feet last season and second amongst this field for the 10-15 feet section. That distance will make the difference this week and Hadwin also ranked fifth amongst this field in the highly regarded strokes gained putting numbers.
Twice a winner on the Web.com Tour, he looks just the type to break through sooner or later and tenth on his 2014 course debut bodes well. 21st last time in Malaysia, hitting over 70% of greens in regulation, represents fair enough form.
At 230.0229/1, Canadian David Hearn looks a no-brainer trade. His last five visits at Summerlin yielded four top-30s, including a couple of top-sevens. He showed good form as recently as August when eighth in the elite Deutsche Bank Championship, and closed strongly at the CIMB last time with 68/68.
Hearn is another known primarily for his putting prowess. He was fifth in that 10-15 foot range last term - not bad considering it was a disappointing season overall. Previously, he'd twice been runner-up on the PGA Tour.
The trading plan is to stake four units in total on the pair, then place lay orders on both at 12.5 and 3.02/1 with a view towards banking a profit in-running. If either hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed to quadruple our money at least, whilst retaining substantial extra live positions.
Back Adam Hadwin 2.5u @ 150.0149/1
Back David Hearn 1.5u @ 230.0229/1
Place order to lay both players 16u @ 14.013/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1