Find Me a 100 Winner: Course clues point to this pair at Sea Island

Troy Merritt can go well at big odds this week
Troy Merritt can go well at big odds this week

For this week's column, Paul Krishnamurty identifies a couple of outsiders with several form lines that bode well for the annual fixture at Sea Island...


"Considering he was runner-up on his penultimate start at the Sandersons Farm Championship, 220.0219/1 is a big price about England's Greg Owen."

Choosing which of this week's tournaments to search for a huge-priced outsider did not take too much thought. Whereas the Australian Open and DP World Tour Championship have extremely strong favourites that look absolutely certain to contend, the RSM Classic has tremendous outsider potential.

Indeed, that's precisely the conclusion Steve Rawlings draws in his detailed tournament preview and it's worth digging deeper into the arguments he lays out there. His sole selection Michael Thompson also made my shortlist but, with his odds falling fast, I've plumped for a couple of alternatives.

The two key clues to follow are these. First, the tournament history strongly suggests it's a putting contest and that requires prowess on bermuda greens.

Second as Steve notes, there is a clear correlation with several other regular PGA Tour tracks. Identifying such correlations between courses is one of the most useful angles to be found in golf betting. Both picks have form on some of the courses in question.

My main pick is just the type for this column. A proven winner at last year's Quickens Loan National and someone who pops up in serious contention every so often, yet is always a big price due to his lack of consistency. Yet Troy Merritt ticks all the right boxes here.

Putting is generally his best asset, ranking 14th amongst this field over the past year. He has good recent form, finishing top-15 on two of his last three starts, and encouraging numbers on those courses that correlate well with Sea Island. He was third at last year's Heritage, runner-up at Southwind in 2014 and finished top-20 on his Colonial debut in May.

Considering he was runner-up on his penultimate start at the Sandersons Farm Championship, 220.0219/1 is a big price about England's Greg Owen. He too has several bits of form in the bank that bode very well for this week's test.

In addition to finishing seventh in this event four years ago, Owen was fifth at this year's Sony Open and was runner-up in the 2015 St Jude Classic, played at Southwind.

The trading plan is to stake 3.5 units on the pair, then place lay orders at 16.015/1 and 3.02/1, with a view towards banking a profit in-running. Should either hit the first target, we'll be guaranteed to quadruple our money at least, whilst retaining substantial extra positions.


Recommended Bets

Back Troy Merritt 2u @ 190.0189/1
Back Greg Owen 1.5u @ 220.0219/1

Place order to lay both players 14u @ 16.015/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1

2016 Profit/Loss

-91.5 units

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