Find Me a 100 Winner: Early starter Cullen can defy huge odds

Nick Cullen can boast better Australian triple-crown form than most
Nick Cullen can boast better Australian triple-crown form than most

Paul Krishnamurty says competitive outsiders are thin on the ground this week but happily he's found one in former Masters champ Nick Cullen. Read his trading plan here...


"I reckon early starters could enjoy quite an advantage, with strong winds for the afternoon on this tough Royal Pines course. Cullen is in the third group out."

There's no two ways about it - finding attractive outsider bets is harder at this late stage of the year than at any other. Once tournaments spread out from mainland Europe and the USA, so do players and the strength in depth significantly diminishes. The effect is that, unlike the rest of the time in my view, favourites tend to represent the best value.

This week is a good case in point. A cursory glance at either the history of the Australian PGA Championship or Alfred Dunhill Championship shows a long list of very obvious winners. Or any Australian or South African tournaments for that matter.

I've already made a case for backing Adam Scott at short odds at his hometown course and wouldn't deter anyone from backing the double with Charl Schwartzel in South Africa.

Finding a plausible outsider for this column was not, therefore, as easy as most weeks, when there is usually a long list to choose from. In fact only two names were on it, both in Australia. The unlikely Open runner-up Ashley Hall and the man I've plumped for, Nick Cullen.

Luckily, it's quite easy to make a case for the 32 year-old. Triple-crown pedigree is all-important in these events and Cullen has plenty. He won the 2014 Masters, has two further triple-crown top-fives and was a perfectly respectable 11th in this year's first leg. He's got bits and pieces of form on the Challenge Tour this term.

A key factor in choosing Cullen over Hall is tee-times. I reckon early starters could enjoy quite an advantage, with strong winds forecast for the afternoon on this tough Royal Pines course. Cullen is in the third group out.

Backing both never crossed my mind, as that would have involved setting a low lay target. Instead, by having the one bet at 150.0149/1, it is possible to set that target at 25.024/1. Just a good front-nine early on Thursday morning could be enough to get there.

The trading plan is to stake 2.5 units on Cullen, then place a lay order for ten units at 25.024/1 and another for twenty at 3.02/1. If he hits that first target, we'll quadruple our money whilst retaining a substantial extra position.


Recommended Bets

Back Nick Cullen 2.5 units @ 150.0149/1

Place order to lay 10 units @ 25.024/1
Place order to lay 20 units @ 3.02/1


2016 Profit/Loss

-94 units

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