Wyndham Championship: Furyk can flourish at Sedgefield

Jim Furyk can celebrate another win
Jim Furyk can celebrate another win

Dave Tindall brings us his analysis and tips for this week's PGA Tour event - the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club...

"With the dust having settled after his earthquake moment, I expect him to be ready to go again"

Main Bet: Back Jim Furyk @ 23.022/1

Each-way terms: ¼ odds, 5 places

Main Bet: Back Jim Furyk e/w @ 22/1

It's not immediately obvious what links the last four winners of this event - Davis Love (2015), Camilo Villegas (2014), Patrick Reed (2013) and Sergio Garcia (2012).

But how about this... since the greens at Sedgefield switched from Bentgrass to Bermuda ahead of the 2012 event, all those champion had won big events in Florida.

It makes sense. Bermuda, of course, is the grainy strain of grass used in Florida and not everyone enjoys putting on it; by contrast, others thrive.

It's by far from the only factor to consider this week but helps me select Jim Furyk as my best bet. Furyk, a two-time winner in the Sunshine State and gatherer of numerous other top 5s and 10s in Florida, arrives in North Carolina having made history.

Not content with the record-equalling 59 he shot in round two of the 2013 BMW Championship, Furyk carded an even more ridiculous 58 in his final lap of the Travelers Championship a fortnight ago. It was a number never seen on the PGA Tour in over 600,000 previous rounds.

The Ryder Cup veteran hit all 18 greens en route to his historic achievement so it wasn't a case of him holing everything he looked at or chipping in several times. The foundation for Furyk's 58 was superb ball-striking.

After his second-round 59 at the BMW in 2013, he followed it with rounds of 69 and 71 as the magic wore off. It's very common. A case of how do you follow that.

But with the dust having settled after his earthquake moment, I expect him to be ready to go again.

Furyk, whose charge through the field hoisted him to T5 after he'd made the cut on the number, is playing this event for just the second time.

The good news is that his one previous visit resulted in T9 in 2011 after he posted 65-67-69-67. Only scheduling has stopped him playing it again but it's clearly a course he likes. And, as a short par 70 which rewards accuracy off the tee, you'd expect it to be that way.

Sedgefield is the only regular-season Donald Ross course used on the PGA Tour but it's also worth checking out results from East Lake, home of the FedEx Cup finale, and Oak Hill which staged the 2013 PGA at Oak Hill.

Furyk won the Tour Championship at East Lake in 2010 as well as finishing second in both 2014 and 2006 while he was runner-up to Jason Dufner at Oak Hill. In short, he's a fan of Donald Ross courses.

As for other form in North Carolina, he was second in the 2014 Wells Fargo Championship and T12 in that year's US Open at Pinehurst.

Take the 22/1.

Furyk is joint third favourite this week and, to be honest, strong cases can be made for the top two.

The 16/1 favourite Patrick Reed was the champion here in 2013 after opening 65-64 and is in extremely consistent form with his last five finishes reading 11-11-13-12-10.

The 20/1 about Hideki Matsuyama just looks a very fair price given how he bounced back to form with a top four in the PGA Championship at Baltusrol.

The Japanese star was T15 here on debut three years ago and shot an opening 65 in 2015 despite missing the cut.

Last week's winner Ryan Moore obviously deserve respects given that this was the scene of his first PGA Tour success (he now has five) in 2009. Back-to-back wins are very rare though unless you're in the world's top four or five.

Next Best: Back Webb Simpson e/w @ 25/1

I've been waiting to pull the trigger again on Webb Simpson for some time but the delaying tactics have proved correct. But only just.

Since posting third at Colonial, he's been a nearly man for each-way backers with T11 at Memorial, T6 (4th with a round to go) at the Quicken Loans and T13 (8th after 54 holes) in the PGA Championship.

But if ever there's a course where he'll sustain his title challenge to the finish it's this one.

Simpson made the big breakthrough on the PGA Tour when landing this event as a 20/1 shot in 2011. He'd previously posted T8 in 2010 and since that victory he's racked up Sedgefield form of 22-11-5-6.

"I love coming here," he said last year. "I said to some people, living in Charlotte, Quail Hollow is kind of a home tournament as well but this is a lot closer to home to Raleigh for me. It feels like my home event.

"Obviously winning here in 2011 kind of set up, you know, the start of a few more wins and I love coming back. I love this golf course. We don't play enough courses on Tour, I don't think, that are as good as this in terms of playability.

"When you've won at a place or played well you're eager to get back just because there's less to think about."

Sometimes players can just trot out these sort of platitudes but Simpson's results at the course back the words up. He's been in worse form than he is now and still been a factor here so hopefully he's playing well enough this time to win it for a second time.

In terms of stats, he's 11th in Strokes Gained Tee-To- Green and 21st in Scoring Average this year.

Given that this is a par 70 with 12 par 4s (two more than usual), it's also good to see him 9th in Par 4 Scoring Average and 7th in Par 4 Birdie Or Better Leaders.

He's an obvious selection but the 25/1 doesn't look unfair.

In fact, cases can be made too for his fellow 25/1 shots Jon Rahm (looks a huge talent and has a second and a third in his last six starts) and Brandt Snedeker (top five at Canadian Open and three top 10s here).

Best Top 5/10: Back Kevin Na for top 10 at 4/1

Yes, I'm putting this up again. And why not?!

I've made some nice profits from Kevin Na in side markets this season and he secured another top 10 payout for us last week when charging through the field to post T8 in the John Deere Classic.

That added to T22 in the US PGA, T22 in the Open Championship, T27 in the WGC-Bridgestone and T7 in the US Open so was a continuation of some really good form.

Na finished 67-64 on the weekend at TPC Deere Run and was 5th for Greens In Regulation (80.6%) and 10th in Driving Accuracy (82.1%) so he's in great shape to shine again.

It's six years since he's teed it up at Sedgefield but on his last visit in 2010 he carded a stunning third-round 61 on the way to T18. Hopefully he'll have some memories of that low one.

He plays well in the Carolinas and his CV shows T12 in the 2014 US Open at Pinehurst while his top four at The Heritage in South Carolina in April was his third top 10 in four starts at Harbour Town.

The stat which shows that Na has won just once in 321 starts on the PGA Tour is the stark reminder that investing any win money on him is almost certain to end in disappointment. Equally, the stat which shows he has 55 top 10s during that time (14 in the last two seasons) shows you how to profit from his good stuff.

Na has plenty of Sedgefield-friendly stats with 5th and 9th in the two Par 4 scoring categories along with 37th in Driving Accuracy and 4th in SG: Approach-The-Green.

If he plays his usual game, another Na top 10 beckons and 4/1 is double what it was last week so I'm definitely sold on that.

Further down the betting, I think David Hearn could also do well.

It will be interesting to see how those who contested the Olympics fare here as there seems to be a huge collective buzz surrounding the Rio contenders.

Justin Rose celebrated his gold with as much vigour as anyone I've seen these last couple of weeks while Hearn was also waxing lyrical about being part of the Games and rounded off his tournament with a 66.

With T12 (Quicken Loans) and T20 (Barbasol), he has some decent recent form and his straight hitting should work well at Sedgefield. He's 125/1 in the outrights but missed cuts on his only two starts here (2011 and 2012) isn't ideal.

However, downgrading a Hearn punt to a top 10 (he's 14/1) could pay off.

The other obvious angle to take when assessing the outsiders is looking at those who are trying to qualify for the FedEx Cup play-offs.

This is the last chance to crack the top 125 and Johnson Wagner (125th) and Matt Jones (126th) are the two right on the bubble.

Everyone from 91st to 190th is entered this week so there are plenty to choose from.

If you're looking for another veteran, Davis Love-type, 135th-ranked Retief Goosen could be worth a look at 150/1.

He putts well on Bermuda (two-time winner in Florida), won the Tour Championship on Donald Ross's East Lake (as has Furyk by the way) and has shown some glimpses of good form recently with T12 in both The Players Championship and St. Jude.

Dave's 2016 P/L (based on £5 e/w per selection outrights, £10 win top 5s/10s)

Staked: £940
Returned: £720.05
P/L: -£219.95

(After John Deere Classic)

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