Each-way terms: ¼ odds, 5 places
Nap - Back Jamie Donaldson @ 41.040/1
He's won on the European Tour in each of the last three years (his only three victories). He's hit the iconic winning shot in the last Ryder Cup. He's finished runner-up in a WGC event.
Now Jamie Donaldson, it's time to take the next step and show you have the class to beat a world-class field and score a win on US soil.
The good news is that his second place in a WGC event came in this very tournament last year. While not everyone enjoyed the course changes made by Gil Hanse ahead of the 2014 event, the Welshman said after his second place that he welcomed them. "They have put a lot more bunkers in which suited my eye more than from last year (he was T63). Some of the tee shots, the target to aim at... the changes were all better for my golf."
Donaldson again showed his liking for tough, Florida golf when battling the weather to finish T6 in last week's Honda Classic.
He was pleased but his summing up suggested there was more to come: "I've had two weeks off, so I felt it was there or thereabouts, but wasn't quite as I'd like. Played great the first day and played much better the last two days. I played great on Saturday. Didn't quite get what I wanted from the round. But, yeah, it's been a good week. I'm in a good position going into next week. I like the course, so good frame of mind for next week."
His top six followed on from a T19 in the Farmers Insurance Open so the 38-year-old, who said recently, "I've always been pretty much a late developer in most things, really", looks ready to land a biggie.
Next best - Luke Donald @ 51.050/1
That Luke Donald bounced back to form in last week's Honda Classic should have come as a complete surprise in hindsight.
He won the 2006 Honda Classic and his record in Florida is almost stupidly-good - two wins and 10 other top 10s in his last 17 starts.
One obvious explanation was confirmed by the Englishman himself last week. "The putter was really working, which has been letting me down of late the last few tournaments. I'm back on Bermuda greens and a nice little tip from my coach early on in the week seems to be working really well. It's nice to get back on Bermuda greens. Obviously this is where I practice and play most of my off weeks. I feel a lot more comfortable on these greens for some reason."
Before that he'd missed three straight cuts on the West Coast and there were doubts from outsiders about new swing changes but Donald wasn't concerned. "Sometimes the results don't kind of show the progress I was making. I felt like my game was getting better each week, even though I wasn't scoring particularly well."
Looking at his scores in those three early exits reveals a round of 69 in each tournament so he has a point.
In this event, he was sixth in both 2011 and 2012 while last year's T25 comprised three decent rounds (70, 72, 69) and one very bad (82 in R3).
Finally, in a tweet about Padraig Harrington on Monday evening, Donald could easily have been talking about himself. He may well find inspiration in his good friend's return to winning ways. "Congrats to Paddy. Works his ass off and never gave up after a few tough years, much to admire about that."
Donald is always a viable each-way option in Florida so the 50/1 looks more than fair.
Outsider - Jason Dufner @ 67.066/1
Like Donaldson, Jason Dufner finished in the top 10 here last year on the new design. That was his best knock in four attempts although the other three weren't too shabby either - 12-29-18. This is a venue he likes.
Explaining last year's solid T9, the 2013 US PGA champ said: "I'm pretty comfortable down here (in Florida and the south). I play a lot of golf down here. I seem to do well on Bermuda grass. Some of my better finishes here and previously on the Web.com have been on Bermuda grass and I'm comfortable in the wind."
Anyone watching PGA Tour golf on TV this year may have struggled to recognize Dufner after he shed 20lbs and cut his hair off. This wasn't vanity (well, maybe the hair was); this was down to health. Asked why he changed his eating habits, Dufner explained: "If I didn't do it, I wasn't going to be able to play golf. So it was pretty simple for me. Didn't really have a choice. I haven't felt good for two or three years."
The slimline Jason Dufner is happy with his game...
The concern with weight-loss in golfers is that a new body-shape can impact on rhythm and timing but Dufner answered that question by saying: "I haven't felt anything but good with my golf game."
Two early-season missed cuts suggested otherwise but we may now be seeing him come on strong again following a solid T17 (71-69-70-70) in last week's Honda Classic.
Having made 17 of his last 18 cuts in Florida (Rory has three times as many MCs in that period), Dufner should be in his element this week.
He loves a tough test - he had back-to-back T4s in the 2012 and 2013 US Opens - and, like Harrington at the Honda, maybe it's time for another former US PGA champ to get back to winning ways.