Deutsche Bank Championship: Day can stay hot with third win on the spin

Jason Day is the form player on the PGA Tour
Jason Day is the form player on the PGA Tour

Dave Tindall brings us his analysis and each-way tips for the second FedEx Cup playoff event - the Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston

"It’s almost inconceivable that we’d have a PGA Tour event this year in which a player was shorter in the pre-tournament betting than Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth and yet that’s the case in Boston this week with Day 6/1 ahead of 15/2 McIlroy and 8/1 Spieth. It’s deserved though and I’m happy to ride the hot horse and back Day to post his fifth win of an incredible season."

Each-way terms: ¼ odds, 5 places

Favourites - best bet: Jason Day @ 7.06/1

With winning scores of -15, -22, -20, -15, -22, -17 and -22 over the last seven editions (that's an average of -19), making lots of birdies and the odd eagle is a must at TPC Boston.

So, who is No.1 in Par Breakers this season? Yep, it's man-of-the-moment Jason Day.

Having taken victory in three of his last four tournaments with winning scores of -17, -20 and -19, it's no wonder!

That makes him the perfect candidate to do well at TPC Boston and it comes as no surprise at all that his past record there is excellent.

The Aussie was runner-up in 2010, third in 2011, T7 last year and also made the top 10 in 2009 and 2013.

Reflecting on his superb six-shot win at The Barclays and looking ahead to this week, he said: "The last six weeks, they've been crazy. The good thing is it's not over. I have this great momentum going into next week to a course (TPC Boston) I absolutely love. It's only positive moving forward from here."

They aren't the words of someone resting on their laurels and this looks a great opportunity for Day to rule again.

One big stat in his favour is that the four-tournament FedEx Cup playoffs are littered with repeat winners proving that once you're hot, you stay hot.

Six times in the eight years of the playoffs, someone has won two of the four tournaments and five times those victories have been back-to-back.

It's almost inconceivable that we'd have a PGA Tour event this year in which a player was shorter in the pre-tournament betting than Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth and yet that's the case in Boston this week with Day 6/1 ahead of 15/2 McIlroy and 8/1 Spieth. It's deserved though and I'm happy to ride the hot horse and back Day to post his fifth win of an incredible season.


Mid-range - best bet: Tony Finau @ 67.066/1

Tony Finau walked off the 18th hole at The Barclays last week having rolled in a 7-foot putt for eagle after smashing his tee shot onto the green.

That helped the easy-going American post T16 and was a 10th top 25 in his last 12 starts.

He's playing well everywhere at the moment but TPC Boston looks a good fit for him given how it yields so many birdies.

The big-hitting Finau, who ranks 1st in Club Head Speed, is 7th in Birdie Average and 9th in Par Breakers. His total of 415 birdies is the second highest on the PGA Tour this season.

If you've been backing Finau in the each-way market over the last few months, it's been frustrating as all those top 25 finishes don't contain anything better than T8 at Memorial.

But surely it's just a matter of time before the 6' 4" rookie-of-the-year candidate throws in a really big title challenge.

His T10 in the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits was a real morale-booster and at the Barclays he reflected: "I feel like I've earned my stripes. I feel like I belong out here and I'm starting to prove that to myself week-in, week-out as I play here and start to get confidence."

Of course, this will be his first start at TPC Boston but he's a quick learner and the 66/1 seems fair enough.

Other contenders for the mid-price best bet are Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler. They're ranked 8th and 19th respectively in Par Breakers and have played some superb golf this season.

However, Fowler missed the cut at The Barclays following a slightly underwhelming T30 at the USPGA while Koepka's putter has gone cold.

"I think I putted it about as bad as I could. It was probably the worst putting performance of my pro career," said Koepka after finishing T6 at the Wyndham and it wasn't much better when he missed the cut at The Barclays last week.

Talking of dodgy putting, Justin Thomas is another who could go well at 80/1 if he could just hold his own on the greens but it's Finau who gets the nod.


Long-shot - best bet: Brendan Steele @ 126.0125/1

Sitting at 16th in Par Breakers is another American, Brendan Steele.

The Californian has some strong numbers this season - 16th in Driving Distance, 26th in Greens In Regulation and 20th in the All-Around and he's 55th in the current FedEx Cup standings.

He missed the cut at The Barclays after failing to repair an opening 75 with a second-round 70 but before that was T12 at the USPGA at Whistling Straits and T7 in the Barracuda Championship. Notably, his best finish this year was in the birdie-fest that is the Humana Challenge when he took T2 - one of four top 10s he's posted this season.

Asked about the state of his game at the USPGA, he said: "I actually feel better about my game going into the playoffs than I have the last few seasons. Every year I seem to be a little sluggish on the way in. So I'm really excited about the state of my game right now and I think I can make a charge in the playoffs."

Okay, that didn't work out at The Barclays but he also missed the cut at Plainfield in 2011 so perhaps that isn't his favourite course.

The same can't be said of TPC Boston.

Steele bounced back from that MC at Plainfield four years ago with a T10 at the following week's Deutsche Bank after opening 69-67-67 and was in second place going into the final day before falling back with a 72.

After he failed to make the playoffs in 2012, it was a similar story in 2013 - missed cut at The Barclays and a T20 in the Deutsche Bank (T9 at halfway).

Last year, he made a poor start at TPC Boston but did close with a pair of 69s so the course definitely suits him.

All in all, he looks a sporting each-way bet at 125/1.

Dave's 2015 P/L (based on £5 e/w per selection)

Staked: £900
Returned: £843.75
P/L: -£56.25

(Includes last week’s Barclays)

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