*Each-Way 1/4 odds, 5 places
The wonderful spectacle of last week's Ryder Cup will surely have inspired many of this week's European Tour field, particularly the youngsters that hold legitimate Ryder Cup hopes themselves. Paul Dunne fits into that category and he has plenty of links form to recommend him, not least a phenomenal performance at the 2015 Open (played at St Andrews), when he led going into the final round; the Irishman was also 19th at this tournament last year. Outsiders have often triumphed at this tournament in recent years, back Dunne to continue that trend.
Throughout his long career, Robert Karlsson has always been a streaky character. Very classy on his day - a multiple winner, capable of contending at the very highest level, yet also prone to long spells of achieving very little. Right now, he seems to be warming up to something close to his best, finishing top-15 on three of his last five starts and shooting 63/65 in his last two rounds, when third at the shortened European Open. The challenge of this low-scoring pro-am is perfect for a peak-form Karlsson, as illustrated when winning the title in 2008 and finishing third in 2005.
Watching Europe taking a Ryder Cup beating will have stung Graeme McDowell who had turned out for the continent in the previous four editions. And in a week where I'm keen to avoid the European contingent that travelled to Hazeltine, I'm exceedingly happy to back a former Ryder Cup star who will be keen to make his mark back in front of a home crowd. There are obvious reasons for supporting the Portrush-born GMac - two top 10s in the last five Open Championships underline that he can play the links game and his record in the event is strong, with a third in 2011 his best result. It's not been the finest season on the PGA Tour for GMac but he has conditions to suit this week and 50/1 is big enough to tempt me in.
In his last six starts, Alex Noren has claimed the prestigious Scottish Open at the Castle Stuart Links, the European Masters in Switzerland (for a second time), and he's also finished runner-up in the Paul Lawrie Match Play at the Archerfield Links. Two of those three results alone tell you what a cracking links exponent he is and he's also finished third in this event before in 2012. Many a good judge thinks he should have been at Hazeltine last week and at an industry best price of 25/1, I fancy he can demonstrate that they were right. He won't mind the forecasted breezy conditions one iota and I can see him contending once more.
It's undoubtedly one of the strongest Alfred Dunhill Links line-ups we've had for a long time, quite possibly the best ever in fact, but I don't see any reason why Callum Shinkwin should be 200/1, and he's my pick. Like any youngster making their way in the game good weeks are going to be followed by bad weeks so I'm not overly worried about the Englishman's recent form. In fact he's played just five tournaments since the Open Championship, an event in which he went off a shorter price that week than he is here. So we only have to go back six or seven tournaments to find Shinkwin's best form of the season, back-to-back top 10s on a tough lay-out in France before a fine eighth at the Scottish Open. So for one so young Shinkwin has already demonstrated he can play links golf, and he's not afraid to go low in tournaments either which as Paul says himself in making Shinkwin a selection in his Find Me a 100/1 Winner column, is a big plus this week.