BMW International Open (¼ odds, 5 places)
Back Henrik Stenson @ 8.07/1
Back Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 46.045/1
My record when banking on a fancied runner goes from bad to worse following Rory McIlroy's dreadful missed cut in Ireland last week.
You can try and work out how a tournament is going to pan out all you like, determine whether someone is value at a certain price, gauge whether your world class player will be too good for the opposition etc - that's all part of gambling and just some of the decisions you have to make before placing a wager.
What you very rarely see is one of the best players in the world - in this case McIlroy - looking disinterested and completely out of sorts. At his best he's nigh on unbeatable, but when he's not 'on his game' there aren't many top players in the world who let shots get away from them as easily as Rory seems to do.
I'm extremely confident that Henrik Stenson won't be missing the cut this week or letting shots get away from him easily - in fact, the Swede looks a rock solid selection to be in the mix come the weekend in Germany.
In racehorse terms, the world number two appears to be timing his Open Championship run to perfection, hitting something like the form he showed when claiming both the Race to Dubai and Fedex Cup titles last season.
Stenson has been driving the ball superbly for the last 12 months, which is always an assett, and it seems that there are few people in the world who hit more greens in regulation that the popular Swede - and that will definitely be of benefit this week in Germany.
As Steve Rawlings says in his in-depth tournament preview, Stenson has been in terrific form of late and has some excellent form at this week's venue - Gut Lärchenhof. A decent field has been assembled, but it's not one that's very deep with world class talent and if Stenson can maintain his recent progress then it's impossible to envisage him not being in contention come Sunday afternoon.
My other fancy in Germany is Miguel Angel Jimenez - available to back at 46.045/1.
The loveable veteran isn't faced with an overly long course this week and that is always of benefit to a player who falls just short of the big hitters. His recent form is good (back-to-back wins on varioous tours a few months ago) and he has form at Gut Lärchenhof, albeit from quite a while back - though he's undoubtedly a much better player now than when he recorded top-three finishes here previously.
Quicken Loans National (¼ odds, 5 places)
Back Jordan Spieth @ 15.014/1
Back Brandt Snedeker @ 26.025/1
Back Billy Horschel @ 41.040/1
Tiger Woods is the big attraction in Maryland this week as he makes his latest return from injury, and although I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at 17.016/1 (though he's rather bigger on the Exchange) it has to be a watching brief for myself.
This is an event that is usually contested by in-form top class players so I'm going with just the three selections this week, starting with the increasingly impressive Jordan Spieth (15.014/1).
It's a slight worry that he's still won only once on Tour given how many opportunities he has given himself but in his defeats he's shown no signs of 'throwing it away' and surely it's just a matter of time before he wins multiple tournaments.
The thing I like about Spieth is that he seems to just take to a venue regardless of his lack of course experience - take his Augusta debut for example. He led at halfway at Congressional last year before finishing sixth and I can see an improvement on that finishing position for a man whose form this season hardly needs mentioning.
Brandt Snedeker (26.025/1) has caught the eye massively in his last few events, starting the US Open with a barrage of birdies before giving most of those shots back during his opening round. But he responded well for a player who had shown very little form this year to eventually record a top-10 finish. He backed that up with a T11 at the Travelers last week after an opening round 65 and a closig round of 64.
So Snedeker's recent form is highly encouraging for a man that has gone really well at Congressional in the past. He has three top-10 finishes to his name at the Maryland venue as well as an 11th-place finish when the US Open was staged here in 2011.
Another player seemingly returning to form is Billy Horschel (41.040/1) and I can see him going well at an event that should record his accuracy.
Horschel finished 15th at Memorial, sixth in the St Jude Classic, and produced a very respectable performance at Pinehurst to finish in the top 25 of the US Open. He's a huge talent and this week might just be the one that sees him bounce right back to his very best.
6 x 1pt E/W Doubles
Stenson, Jimenez (BMW International Open)
Spieth, Snedeker, Horschel (Quicken Loans National)
*Each-way doubles are settled on a win-to-win place-to-place basis using Betfair's Sportsbook product and therefore any winnings are exempt from commission
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