Double Delight: Back Sterne and Day to go well on familiar lay-outs

Mike Norman
04 February 2014

Jason Day has a lot going for him at Pebble Beach this week

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After a 40/1 winner and two places at 25/1 and 28/1, Mike Norman's new Double Delight column is already showing a very healthy profit. This week our man is going for two in Europe and four in America as he tries to land a win or place double using Betfair's Sportsbook product...

8 x 1pt E/W Doubles

Schwartzel @ 4.57/2
Sterne @ 21.020/1

X

Day @ 13.012/1
Johnson @ 15.014/1
Kokrak @ 61.060/1
Van Pelt @ 126.0125/1

What a strange few days we endured last week with what turned out to be my 'banker' for a place - Rory McIlroy - eventually flopping on Sunday, only for 41.040/1 selection Stephen Gallacher to come storming through the field on Saturday, take four steps back during the early part of his final round, but eventually get the job done to set up a very exciting evening.

Ahead of the final round of the Phoenix Open we had 29.028/1 selection Bubba Watson leading by two and 26.025/1 chance Ryan Moore just three back. A win for either would have netted us a four-figure price double.

As it turned out it was 31.030/1 selection Graham Delaet that looked like landing us a 1,270/1 double but he eventually finished in a tie for second with Bubba, who bogied the last hole to slip out of the lead.

Ultimately though, it was a very profitable week with 181.5 points returned from our 18 points outlay, so despite coming extremely close to that magical win double we can't really complain at how it all turned out. We'll just have to do the double this week!

Joburg Oepn (¼ odds, 5 places)

Back Charl Schwartzel @ 4.57/2
Back Richard Sterne @ 21.020/1

It may seem that very little thought has gone in to this week's two selections, after all, tipping up the first and third favourites is hardly 'pushing the boat out'. But fear not; I've previously done plenty of research on golf tournaments staged in South Africa and in particular the Joburg Open.

And to put it simply, I don't want to be with anyone this week unless their nationality is South African.

In fact last year my stats preview of this event led me to making Richard Sterne my headline selection. He won by seven shots, has since declared his love for this tournament and course, has shown some glimpses of his best form recently, and yet he is a bigger price to win this year than he was last year.

In summary, last year's study suggested that backing the cream of the home players was the way to go, and I just thought that Sterne was far better value than Charl Schwartzel going into this event 12 months ago.

It's slightly different this time around however because as Steve 'The Punter' Rawlings points out, some very good recent form is also a good pointer. Neither Sterne or Schwartzel can bring some obvious recent form to the table but I'm happy to ignore recent figures for various reasons.

Regarding Sterne, he may have finished down the field in Dubai last week but that might be a bit misleading. He opened with a fine 66 on Thursday but the combination of very fast greens and a slightly below-par short game resulted in him making some sloppy errors. And as Steve says, he just seemed to lose interest during a poor final round.

It's easy to overlook what happened last week then as Sterne is clearly swinging it well enough to put up a fine defence in Joburg, a course that he admits he loves to play. I believe he's an outstanding each-way price this week.

As for Schwartzel, well it was only two months ago that he was finishing fourth, first, and sixth in three consecutive tournaments in his homeland. He then finished in a slightly disappointing 15th position in the Volvo Golf Champions three weeks ago but without a shadow of a doubt in my view, he's going into this week in just as good a shape as he did last year.

And of course, Schwartzel finished second to Sterne in 2013 meaning that in his last five visits to Royal Johannesburg and Kensington GC he has finished in the top five on four occasions, winning twice. Unless a crocodile takes one of his legs off - quite possible in these parts - then I can't see him not finishing in the frame.

AT+T National (¼ odds, 5 places)

Back Jason Day @ 13.012/1
Back Dustin Johnson @ 15.014/1
Back Jason Kokrak @ 61.060/1
Back Bo Van Pelt @ 126.0125/1

This isn't the most adventurous Double Delight column I'll pen this season, it just so happens that this week's two tournaments are relatively low quality affairs with some stand-out, rather obvious, picks at the head of the market.

Of the three leading fancies at the AT+T I'm happy to get both Jason Day and Dustin Johnson on side, but Phil Mickelson is reluctantly left out given his back injury scare in recent weeks. Obviously he wouldn't be playing if he wasn't feeling fine, but I just wonder if he's protecting it a little and not playing at full throttle.

Day is an obvious pick purely on both his current form and course form. He has finished inside the top 15 in his last seven worldwide starts including a win in the individual part of the World Cup of Golf, and a second at the recent Farmers Insurance Open. This tournament isn't one you want to play without having previous course knowledge so the fact that Day has recorded two top-six finishes and a top-15 finish in his last four attempts is also highly encouraging. He'll be difficult to stop this week.

Johnson's selection almost doesn't need explaining. He really should have won a US Open around Pebble Beach, he has won this event twice (2009 & 2010), and he has a further two top-seven finishes to his name here. His recent form is excellent too having won the WGC-HSBC Champions in November and finishing sixth in the Tournament of Champions last month. He looks set for another fabulous week in a tournament he clearly loves to play in.

My third pick from a form perspective is Jason Kokrak, who has now recorded four top-20 finishes from his last six starts. He was on the fringes of contention last week in Phoenix but a disappointing final round of 73 saw him drop to a tie for 15th, and although he's only played in this event twice, one of those starts did result in a top-10 finish. He's arguably a much better player these days and he can go well once more.

From a stats perspective my view is that you need to hit plenty of Greens in Regulation this week, while scrambling will also be a key factor. For those reasons I'm pinning my hopes on an extremely talented player in Bo Van Pelt.

BVP didn't have the best of seasons in 2013 and his recent record in this tournament is nothing to shout home about, but he ranks third on the Tour for Proximity to Hole and 10th in the the overall GIR stats. Even more encouraging is that he also ranks fourth on the Proximity to Hole stats from inside 30 yards, so when you realise that from 2006 to 2008 he finished 14th, 11th and 24th in this event then perhaps he's ready to bely his odds of 126.0125/1.

8 x 1pt E/W Doubles

Schwartzel, Sterne (Joburg Open)

Day, Johnson, Kokrak, Van Pelt (AT+T National)

*Each-way multiples are settled on a win-to-win place-to-place basis using Betfair's Sportsbook product and therefore any winnings are exempt from commission