Coral Puntacana Resort & Club Championship: Make it Matt
The PGA Tour has a second event this week and Dave Tindall has three each-way picks for the action in the Dominican Republic...
"He's definitely hit some form and across the Honda and Valspar Jones gained a combined 7.3 strokes with the putter."
Main Bet: Back Matt Jones each-way @ 35/1
Matt Jones had his first involvement in the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship last year and had a decent week, finishing tied 28th.
A modest start left him hovering around the cut line but a 67-73-69 finish meant he secured a top 30 and ended a run of three straight missed cuts.
He returns in far better form this time after cashing in his last five starts.
That run starts and closes with two tied 13ths, the first at Torrey Pines and the second at last week's Valspar Championship.
Between the pair, he looked set for a big finish at the Honda Classic after handing in a trio of 69s but slipped from T12 to T36 after closing with a 74.
Delving into his numbers, he's definitely hit some form and at the Honda and Valspar Jones gained a combined 7.3 strokes with the putter.
Last week at Innisbrook he ranked 6th for SG: Around The Green and short game was the key to Brice Garnett's victory in this event last year when he shot 18-under and ranked 15th for Scrambling and 1st for Putts per GIR.
Jones is a good player in the wind, has a PGA Tour win to his name in Houston and, on current form, is very capable of making an impression at a coastal track on which he performed pretty well last year.
I also had a look at his Aussie compatriot Curtis Luck.
The two actually finished side by side at the Valspar (T13) where Luck ranked second for Putting Average and 12th for Scrambling.
He's also done well by the sea this year with T28 at Pebble Beach and T25 at the Puerto Rico Open and could certainly go well at 50s.
Next Best: Back Rory Sabbatini each-way @ 45/1
I considered 40/1 Paul Dunne (fifth here last year) for my second pick but at a few points higher I'll take Rory Sabbatini.
Again, it's a numbers thing with Sabbatini looking sharp around the greens and the putter working better in his last few outings.
That helped the South African finish T36 at the Honda Classic T35 at the Players Championship and T18 at the Valspar.
Historically, Sabbatini has played well when in the groove and stringing tournaments together so another outing here on the back of some tough Florida events could work well for him.
He's had one previous look at the course, closing with a 69 to finish tied 43rd in 2018, but he's definitely one who can flourish in the wind.
Let's not forget that he's a six-time PGA Tour winner and a former Masters runner-up so, at his best, Sabbatini should be right at the front of the betting.
Why the drop off in recent years? At 42, there's plenty of good golf left in him but he gave this explanation at Memorial last June when asked about his improved play.
"Just unfortunately played four-and-a-half years injured trying to compensate for the injury and then finally healthy again, so it's taken a while to get back to my true swing.
"Through the injury I've modified to compensate for that, not being able to do it. And now I'm starting to be able to do it again.
"I lost a little bit of feel and became a little bit more mechanical because of having to try and find a swing that wasn't putting pressure on parts of my body. Through that I kind of lost my ability to really be able to visualise and create shots.
"I had what's considered a severely herniated disk in C-6, C-7 and was developing nerve pain. So finally had to succumb to it and have surgery."
The former World No.9 (yes, really) has come through that and is definitely on the up again. He could look a wise investment at the industry-high 45/1.
Final Bet: Back Max Homa each-way @ 100/1
It's slightly surprising that, in a field of this quality, the guy with one of the best recent (8-week) scoring averages can be backed at 100/1.
The man in question is Max Homa, who ranks third behind tournament favourites Jhonattan Vegas and Sungjae Im in that category.
Vegas and Im are both ranked 14/1 and that's probably fair enough given their recent form.
But Homa at 100s?
That recent scoring average of 68.89 has helped him finish T26 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T10 at Pebble Beach, T27 at the Genesis Open and T20 at the Honda Classic.
Okay, he took a step back with a missed cut at the Valspar but three finishes of T26 or better in his last five events is certainly decent in a field of this quality.
Homa also has a bit of course experience too having contested the 2016 Web.com event held at Corales.
He started slowly that year but fired a 66 in round two before shooting 69-70 on the weekend.
Breaking down the stats, I'm looking for short-game prowess and the 28-year-old has that.
Homa is 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 12 rounds and 20th for SG: Short Game.
Yes, the Californian hasn't got an awful lot to show at this level but he's a two-time Web.com winner and regained his card through that tour last season.
He once admitted he felt star-struck on the PGA Tour but, with all due respect to this field, that shouldn't be a big problem here.
Dave's 2018/19 PGA Tour P/L (based on £5 ew per selection outrights, £10 win top 5s/10s)
Staked: £540
Returned: £417
P/L: -£157
2017/2018:
P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017:
P/L: +£1179.89
Recommended bets
Back Matt Jones each-way @ 35/1
Back Rory Sabbatini each-way @ 45/1
Back Max Homa each-way @ 100/1
*Each-way terms, 1/5 odds 7 places