BMW PGA Championship: Burmester is FRL pick at Wentworth

South African Dean Burmester
South African Dean Burmester can make a fast start

Dave Tindall picks out three players to get onside early at this week's BMW PGA Championship...

"There's no obvious reason why Dean Burmester should love Wentworth but the bottom line is that he's made two starts at the West Course and finished tied ninth and tied 12th."

*EW Terms: 1/5 Odds | 7 Places

Weather forecast: Winds are light all day so the main point to note is the change in temperature. The early wave will have a bright but chilly start while those teeing it up in the afternoon should get consistent temps in the high 60s/early 70s.

History: Here are the tee-times for the R1 leaders/joint leaders at Wentworth over the last six years:

2018 Lucas Bjerregaard (13:35)
2017 Johan Carlsson (10:30)
2016 Scott Hend (08:55), YE Yang (09:15), Joost Luiten (13:15)
2015 Francesco Molinari (12:20)
2014 Thomas Bjorn (08:15)
2013 James Kingston (10:10)

Of those eight players, five teed off in the morning but it's a 3-3 am/pm split if looking at the last four years.

Strategy: In terms of weather, the main significance in the change of date is that September mornings are much cooler than May mornings. The ball won't fly far for the a.m. wave although they'll get flatter greens. I'm leaning towards the p.m. wave but remember that it's a one-tee start with players going off every 10 minutes so there isn't quite a natural morning/afternoon split. Overall, I don't want anyone too early as they'll have to play the first few hours in the cold before it heats up.

Bank on Burmester

There's no obvious reason why Dean Burmester should love Wentworth but the bottom line is that he's made two starts at the West Course and finished tied ninth and tied 12th.

He's fired a 65, a 66 and a 67 during those eight rounds.

The middle one of those came on day one last year when he ended the opening lap in second place.

Burmester returns to England on the back of a pair of missed cuts in Germany and Sweden but only three weeks ago he was seventh after the first 18 holes in the Scandinavian Invitation where, thanks mainly to a 62 in round three, he went on to finish third.

"I think all of us (South Africans) love Wentworth," he said last year and it certainly seems he has a particular fondness for the track redesigned by his legendary compatriot Ernie Els.

Burmester goes off at 10:10 and, by then, the thermometer gauge is starting to rise towards the early 60s which is just fine.

Take the 100/1.

Go for Green again

Gavin Green is no stranger to this column and it's obvious why.

The Malaysian is basically the European Tour's fast-start king, a position he's made his own since June.

On a variety of different courses and from a range of tee-times, Green's end-of-R1 positions in his last eight starts read: 6-2-10-29-1-7-6-2.

That's six top 10s and five were in the top seven which is good given there are seven payout places this week.

He made the cut on his Wentworth debut last year (T52) so will know more this time and hopefully his secret Wednesday night routine pays off again and he can start fast once more.

Green, an 80/1 shot for FRL, goes out in the group after Burmester at 10:20 so won't have much foot traffic to deal with.

Count on Kiradech

Kiradech Aphibarnrat has been a leaderboard presence on Thursday for the last three years at Wentworth.

An opening 67 put him second after 18 holes two years ago while first-round 68s saw him reside in the top eight in both 2016 and 2018.

He's done well from those last two fast starts, finishing tied 14th and tied fifth so he definitely has a liking for the West Course.

The Thai hasn't done much of late although he did begin Open week with a 68 which left him third after day one at Royal Portrush.

He took T32 and then finished down the field in the Wyndham Championship and The Northern Trust although he started those two events with rounds of 64 and 68 respectively so he's been doing his best work on day one.

Aphibarnrat is 100/1 for FRL leader this week and that's worth a play from his 13:20 tee-time.

Dave's 2019 R1 leader P/L (based on £5 ew per selection)

Staked: £1050
Returned: £1022.59
P/L: -£27.41

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