BMW PGA Championship 2015: The best speciality bets for Wentworth

Danny Willett looks a major contender this week
Danny Willett looks a major contender this week

Ahead of the European Tour's flagship event, Paul Krishnamurty has scoured Betfair's wide array of speciality markets and produced a portfolio to maintain a strong interest for all four days...

"Willett is beginning to fulfil his long-expected potential. Since winning the Nedbank just before Christmas, the Sheffield man has tried his luck in the States and made an immediate impact, most notably reaching the World Match Play semis and finishing 12th in the WGC event at Doral."

Back-to-Lays

Back Ross Fisher 3u @ 120.0119/1
Back Byeong Hun An 2u @ 180.0179/1

Place order to lay both players 20u @ 15.014/1

Such is the top-heavy nature of the market for this week's BMW PGA Championship, it was much harder than usual to narrow down the shortlist of outsiders for my Find Me a 100 Winner trading column. So while I've stuck to players in excess of 200.0199/1 for that piece, with a view to keeping that staking plan realistic, a second plan is well worth a try.

Ross Fisher is always worth considering on his home course and at 120.0119/1, much bigger than in previous renewals. Runner-up in 2009 and tenth the following year, it's surprising that he hasn't contended in this event since Wentworth was redesigned. As a long, straight driver with bags of course knowledge, there's no reason why he shouldn't. He's ranked top-15 for greens in regulation on his last three starts, so the long game is in decent shape.

As a general rule, backing course debutants here is a dubious strategy because they are conceding so much advantage to so many players. That is surely the logic behind Byeong Hun An trading at 180.0179/1, because his form warrants about a third of those odds. His debut season has already yielded six top-15 finishes, including his last two events and among elite company during the Desert Swing.

The trading plan is to stake five units on the pair, then place an order to lay 20 on both at 15.014/1. That way, we'll quadruple our money if either hit the target, whilst still leaving an extra 60 units profit available for the win.


Tournament Matchbet

Back Danny Willett to beat Graeme McDowell 10u @ 1.84/5

The careers of these two Brits appear to be heading in opposite directions. Former US Open and Ryder Cup stalwart McDowell is yet to make any impact in 2015, registering just one top-20 finish. As he's missed the last three Wentworth cuts and never bettered 13th here, another tough week looks in store.

In contrast, Willett is beginning to fulfil his long-expected potential. Since winning the Nedbank just before Christmas, the Sheffield man has tried his luck in the States and made an immediate impact, most notably reaching the World Match Play semis and finishing 12th in the WGC event at Doral. Long, straight-hitting Willett definitely has the right game for Wentworth and is set for his best performance since finishing fifth on debut here in 2010.


Top-20 Finish (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Andy Sullivan 4u @ 4/1
Back Max Kieffer 3u @ 5/1
Back Richard Green 3u @ 11/2
Back Anthony Wall 3u @ 11/2


Top-10 Finish

Back Ross Fisher 2u @ 8.415/2
Back Andy Sullivan 1.5u @ 11.010/1
Back Wade Ormsby 1.5u @ 13.012/1
Back David Horsey 1.5u @ 14.013/1
Back Max Kieffer 1u @ 15.014/1
Back Anthony Wall 1u @ 17.016/1

No speciality bets plan would be complete without an extensive portfolio of finishing position bets. Wentworth is perfect for this sort of betting, because we have decades of course form and know the demands inside out. There are numerous outsiders that fit the bill, but may struggle to keep tabs with the likes of Rory McIlroy. A top-20 or top-10 finish, however, is well within range.

The plan is to back seven players, laying out 21.5 units in total. Any one winner will nearly cover that stake. Three players - Andy Sullivan, Max Kieffer and Anthony Wall - are recommended in both so a top-ten for any of them would put the plan well in front.

The cases for Sullivan, Kieffer and top-ten pick Wade Ormsby are made in detail in my Find Me a 100 Winner column, and Fisher's inclusion is explained above.

Wall is an enormous price, given his propensity for high finishes without contending and a good course record. He's been sixth twice in this event before and was top-30 last year. Prior to missing his last two cuts, he'd been in solid form, making three straight top-15s and finishing runner-up in the Joburg Open.

Richard Green's 16th place last year was his seventh top-20 in the event. Accurate with a stellar short game, the Aussie left-hander is ideal for Wentworth. Finally, similar comments could apply in the long-term to David Horsey, who contended throughout for seventh in 2011 and is in fair form, registering his third top-20 in five starts on Sunday.


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