BMW Masters Tips: Swerve the big guns with this in-form trio

Shane Lowry is in-form and well-suited to Lake Malaren
Shane Lowry is in-form and well-suited to Lake Malaren

The final stage of the Race to Dubai begins this week and some of golf's biggest names have assembled in China. Given their lack of recent form, however, Paul Krishnamurty argues the way forward is to stick with in-form players who have been busy over the past month...

"Shane Lowry stands out at 48.047/1. Lake Malaren, with greens measuring 11 on the stimp-meter, is very much a 'putter's course' and the Irishman perfectly fits that bill."

Autumn is something of a transitional period in the golfing calendar, sandwiching the most pivotal stages. The majors and FedEx Cup are finished and the Dubai World Championship still a month away. Consequently, many of the biggest names take this chance to have a break. The first stage of the Race to Dubai finale, along with a big prize fund and BMW's sponsorship, has lured many of them back into action this week in China, but whether they represent a reliable or good value betting option is quite another matter.

There is certainly an element of risk, for instance, in backing tournament favourite Henrik Stenson at just 8.07/1. Sure, the FedEx Cup champion was the best player in the world during the late summer but he hasn't played since East Lake. We have seen second favourite Rory McIlroy, who returned to action with second place in Korea last week, but his claims are hardly bombproof either. One could argue that the Korea result was nothing out of the ordinary against a weak field and, lest we forget, Rory has yet to win in 2013. Not really the form figures of a 10.09/1 chance.

This hasn't been much of a year for any of the next three in the betting either. None of Lee Westwood, Luke Donald or Martin Kaymer have won this year or been at anything like their best. The counter-argument in their favour is their form in this event last year. Of those five, only Stenson missed the top-14 and that can be overlooked because the Swede's rehabilitation at the highest level had yet to begin. Clearly this is a course that favours the best players, although winner Peter Hanson is a less fashionable name than any of the aforementioned quintet.

So far as trading value is concerned, I'd much rather take a chance on players who've been busy in recent weeks and in good form. First up, Shane Lowry stands out at 48.047/1. Lake Malaren, with greens measuring 11 on the stimp-meter, is very much a putter's course and the Irishman perfectly fits that bill. He was fifth behind Hanson last year after a slow start and arrives in good form, finishing third in the Dunhill Links birdie-fest on his penultimate start.

Another man in good form is 80.079/1 chance Victor Dubuisson, who finished third on his penultimate start at Crans then 17th in Portugal, topping the greens in regulation stats in the process. The Frenchman is one of the most obvious first-time winners-in-waiting in world golf and his record in Asia suggests this continent is as likely a venue as any. In eight starts in Asia, Dubuisson has made the top-11 six times.

One can usually rely on Pablo Larrazabal in this part of the world too and a low-scoring putting contest is right up his street. His last five tournaments in Asia have yielded top-20s, including four top-tens. As with the aforementioned pair, Larrazabal has found form in the past few weeks, registering top-20s in his last three starts in Holland, Scotland and Portugal, twice inside the top-ten.

My trading advice is to stake eight units in total on the trio, then place orders to lay for 20 units on each player at 7.06/1. If any of them hits the target, we'll be guaranteed a minimum of 12 units profit, with a substantial extra profit still running if they go on to win.

Recommended Bets
Back Shane Lowry 4u @ 48.047/1
Back Victor Dubuisson 2u @ 85.084/1
Back Pablo Larrazabal 2u @ 90.089/1

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses

T&Cs apply.