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WGC Cadillac Championship Tips: The best speciality bets for Doral

Will the real Rory McIlroy stand up at Doral?

"Markets always over-react to the short-term and all it will take is a good start for everything negative to be forgotten. If Rory gets anywhere near contention, his odds will collapse, probably to shorter than they should be."

Back Rory McIlroy 5u @ 27.026/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 5.04/1

Paul Krishnamurty has scoured Betfair's wide range of speciality markets ahead of this week's WGC event. Read his best bets here...

Back-to-Lays
Back Rory McIlroy 5u @ 27.026/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 5.04/1

You don't have to fancy Rory McIlroy this week to recognise that the world number one is an absolutely enormous price. If this event had taken place two months ago, (or three events ago in terms of his career), he'd be less than a quarter of these odds. Whatever the issues regarding his new clubs or attitude, Rory is the same player.

Markets always over-react to the short-term and all it will take is a good start for everything negative to be forgotten. If Rory gets anywhere near contention, his odds will collapse, probably to shorter than they should be. That's all I'm trying with this trade, and will happily snatch the 15 units profit should he shorten to what in normal circumstances would be an unambitious lay target.

Back Rickie Fowler 3u @ 48.047/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1

A similar logic applies here, although Fowler does have sound recent form credentials and is a bigger starting price. Rickie is another 'talking horse', prone to over-hype whenever he appears on a leaderboard. One could certainly argue that he was too short going into Sunday at PGA National, especially given a poor conversion record. 

Nevertheless, he has a good record in Florida and finished eighth on his Doral debut in 2011. Moreover, Fowler showed again last week that he is a master of windy conditions and, while speeds this week aren't expected to be brutal, wind will be a constant factor on quite an exposed layout. 


Back John Senden to be Top Australian 2u @ 11.010/1

This market may not prove to be all that competitive so, despite some ordinary recent numbers, John Senden's course form could point the way to a value bet. Of the five candidates, Adam Scott has a poor Doral record, Jason Day is as yet unproven on the track and Marcus Fraser rates clearly the weakest of the bunch. Former champion Geoff Ogilvy is obvious after last week's second place but he'd previously missed four consecutive cuts. Against that lot, Senden's three straight top-20s at Doral, finishing sixth and 11th in the last two renewals, reads pretty well.


Finishing Positions
Back Matt Kuchar for top-five finish 3u @ 5.59/2
Back Matt Kuchar for top-ten finish 8u @ 3.02/1
Back Peter Hanson for top-five finish 2u @ 13.012/1
Back Peter Hanson for top-ten finish 3u @ 5.79/2
Back Francesco Molinari for top-ten finish 2u @ 8.415/2

For various reasons, this event looks ideal for finishing position betting purposes. With decades of past course form to study, we know what is expected at Doral and that lightning fast greens measuring 11.8 on the stimp-meter will separate the best putters from the rest. Consequently, we can therefore identify numerous repeat strugglers around here, who would otherwise be strong candidates. See for example, Lee Westwood's best result of 18th from five tries, Sergio Garcia's record of only two top-20s from eight tries or Adam Scott missing the top-50 on four out of seven appearances.

In a much smaller than usual field of 65, which already contains a dozen or so no-hopers, removing such big names from calculations makes a profound difference to finishing positions. Those that do tick all the correct Doral boxes can be backed with confidence for places, even if they're not necessarily fancied for the win. 

New World Matchplay champion Matt Kuchar rates the week's banker. He's finished top-eight in the last three Doral renewals and would usually represent value at these sort of place odds, regardless of his current form or this week's ideal conditions. Nobody is putting better right now.

Peter Hanson is another who repeatedly delivers for place backers, including when fourth here last year. That wasn't his only top effort in US championship events on fast greens, as he also made the frame at the Masters. Having topped last week's greens in regulation stats when finishing 13th at PGA National, Hanson looks set to be there or thereabouts again. Finally, as laid out in greater detail in my Find Me a 100 Winner column, Francesco Molinari's Doral record warrants great respect and shorter odds than are available.


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06 March 2013

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