General / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 September 2007 /

Pro-punter Paul Krishnamurty thinks laying the leader could be the answer at the end of a long European season

With the Fedex Cup completed, the main golfing attraction is now a series of big European Tour events and the battle to win the Order of Merit. History suggests that this race will go to the wire, with plenty of volatility and potential for dramatic betting turnarounds.

Apart from Ernie Els' runaway success in 2004, every recent Order of Merit has been close, and in the last two years the contest has remained undecided until the final day of the final tournament.

Defending champion Padraig Harrington leads the way and is currently trading at around 1.8. Without denigrating the Irishman's chances of a successful defence in any way - he has after all just enjoyed the best year of his career - these odds are extremely short. Last year in fact, Harrington only won his first OOM after chief rival Paul Casey traded at less than 1.1 on the final day.

The Open champion has already earnt just over €2.1m , €300,000 ahead of his nearest rivals but well short of the kind of total that will be required.

This century, only Retief Goosen in 2002 won with less than €2.5m, and the average winning total has been €2.93m. There are plenty of opportunities for the chasing pack to close ground. Even this week's British Masters carries a tasty €434,000 first prize, despite being the smallest prize fund of any of the seven remaining events.

Three events in particular will help determine the winner. The Dunhill Links in a fortnight has a prize fund total of €5m, nearly three times this week's total. To follow we have the World Matchplay at Wentworth, an event that could prove pivotal as all of the sixteen competitors are guaranteed decent prize money with huge cheques for the finalists. Matters will be settled in the final event of the season, the lucrative Volvo Masters at Valderrama. If any of the main protagonists can win one of these three prestigious titles they will probably move into pole position.

I reckon the twelve players within €1m of Harrington still hold chances, but the main challengers are the four sitting within €500,000 - Justin Rose, Ernie Els, Henrik Stenson and Niclas Fasth.

It's dangerous to rule out a talented player like Stenson, but there's been nothing in his summer form to suggest he's about to catch fire again (the Swede traded at a low of 1.5 when starting the season on a hot streak).

Fasth is the highest contender playing this week at Woburn and would almost catch Harrington if he were to win there. Rose and Els probably represent the best global form of 2007 amongst these and look well capable of overcoming their €300,000 deficit.

Els looks the biggest danger. As arguably the best links player of the last decade, (and I include Tiger Woods in that assessment), it seems quite strange that he's never won a Dunhill Links. He has however finished second twice and made the top seven on four of his five attempts. But it's the following event at Wentworth where Els is most feared. With his home overlooking the course, this is rumoured to be his favourite event, especially as he's won the World Matchplay on no less than six occasions. Ultimately Ernie's chance may depend on whether he plays at Valderrama, a decision that could rest on whether he has a chance of winning the money list.

Rose is also down to play in all three of those lucrative events and must rate among the favourites in each on the basis of an outstanding 2007.

Incredibly, Rose finds himself in second place for the money list after just eight qualifying events - four fewer than anyone else among the top 10.

England's leading player has been sorely missed in Europe this year but the new schedule may offer him the chance to make up for lost time and complete what would be a remarkable achievement. Even more so as he's accumulated that total without winning a single event.

So the final question is how to play this market. As tempting as Els and particularly Rose are at their current odds of 5.8 and 11, I think the safest strategy must be to lay Harrington at odds-on. Mainly because the race doesn't just include those three. It only needs Fasth, Paul Casey or even Soren Hansen to hit a late-season purple patch and they could easily be projected right into contention. And given the big money available for winning the final event, there's every chance Harrington will still be at backable odds on the final day even if nobody has overtaken him in the meantime.

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