General / Craig Dutton / 12 November 2007 /

It's the start of a new season in golf and our golf blogger Craig has made some changes to his tactics

Wouldn't it be wonderful if everything fitted in a tidy, neat little box? The advent of the new golfing season, not that the naked eye could see anything has changed, should really have fallen beautifully on New Year's Day. Then I could have segued delightfully into a New Year's Resolution's list for golf betting. Alas, the powers that be in the golfing world dismiss my journalistic needs willy-nilly. Nonetheless, the new golf season requires some attention and so I've put together a few tips. They're only judgements, and who am I to tell you to follow them? But I will, so if my blogging becomes increasingly erratic as the months ebb by expect the resolutions to have failed.

Resolution One - Lay Tiger Woods.

I can't describe to you the internal argument I have had with myself about the order of resolutions one and two. I feel the second is a more original idea, but this first one just has to be observed. It may be wearing out an old record, but some old records are profitable. Think early Pink Floyd.

Woods is a great player, probably the best around. Everybody knows this. As a consequence, he is always, always, always an extremely short price to prosper in any tournament, whether he is in form or not. We're looking at laying a player here destined to be priced at (5) or shorter on the exchange, certainly not double figure prices. To make a loss over the season, he would have to put together a magical run of victories. If he started to do that, his price would contract even more as the tournaments went by. I can't see how laying Woods for every tournament he plays in, to the same degree each time, can provide anything else but profit. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

Resolution Two - Lay last-time winners.

If you didn't read last week's blog, then please do! It seems a back-to-back double is achieved, on average, once a year. It will undoubtedly become harder to achieve as years go by, so I wouldn't be surprised if nobody managed it this season. If a player wins a tournament, lay him next time out. But be wary. Recent years have been popping up 100+ winners on the exchanges more and more, and though his price will contract for his next outing, maybe not that much. So if he does manage to pull it off, which is highly unlikely, it could be a big hit, so be careful. In the long term, however, laying previous winners seems the sensible thing to do.

Resolution Three - Don't be Superman.

On all betting mediums, we come across labyrinths which we just cannot get through. No one is Superman, and if the field looks just too hard to decipher, then leave it alone. Sometimes the bare facts tell us everything we need to know. OK, it's galling to admit defeat, and finding a piece of hay in a stack of needles is immensely pleasurable when it comes off, but most of the time it won't. Betting on every tournament, even when we know nothing about it, is a sure fire way to lose. If you know nothing about a tournament, what pleasure are you getting? You may as well give to charity - at least someone benefits. Save your money for all the Woods laying.

* So, has Craig gone mad with this Woods laying? Who do you think punters should look out for in 2008? Are there any springers who could provide a shock? And which golfers should we steer well clear of?

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