General / Craig Dutton / 10 September 2007 /

Cabrera's been letting me down again but a chance meeting with an odds compiler has given me fresh insight into the game

I was fixing to write about the BMW Championship, where yet again Angel Cabrera has shrouded our relationship in failure and mainly debt. I'm not sure what's affecting him, but his form really has been abysmal recently and he needs to snap out of it - maybe take some time out, it's not as if he needs the money.

He really doesn't look too bothered at the minute. It's this kind of complacency that makes relationships disintegrate at the flip of a coin. Also, I have been seeing Steve Stricker on the side. Don't you dare tell Angel about this. It's nothing serious; I've just been taking a little interest. I need to keep Angel on his toes.

But I digress. The whole reason I'm not writing about the BMW Championship at length is an amazing bit of fortune that fell into my lap this week. Despite my years I've been around the block a few times and worked for a few different bookmakers. A person I used to know, though not particularly well, is now a trainee odds compiler for a well-known company. You can see my writing is becoming more covert with every sentence, but I'm not sure how much information I can really give. On top of that, this may be the first Betfair blog ever to morph into an Agatha Christie novel, replete with red herrings and dirty secrets.

To cut a short story even shorter, I met him this week at Wolverhampton. We were both enjoying a rare day off, and we got talking as the £3 Carlsberg Export began flowing (though other popular lagers, wines and spirits were available).

I wrote a blog two weeks ago centred on odds compilation. I theorised that in a wide open golf tournament with vast field, perhaps the compilers didn't study some of the bigger outsiders in such detail, and suggested, maybe naively, that some players were automatically thrown a three-figure price every week. On the other hand, Woods is always given stupidly short odds.

According to this man, who we'll call Mr X, though never has the title 'Mr. X' been more misleading regarding the importance and appearance of a human being, the compilers believe they get a bad rap. Mr X told me that many of the compilers personally believe the market leaders should be longer than they are, but the sheer weight of money they expect to attract forces them to open shorter than they would like. According to Mr. X, the popular consensus is that Woods is never realistically a 2/1 chance, and that no player can be value at such a price. It's comforting to know that punters are not alone deriding such restrictive prices. It may also explain why there is usually a lot of money queuing to lay Woods on Betfair at such prices. These odds compilers need to exercise their wits sometimes, you know.

Like all good exclusive Sunday scoops, Mr X's further revelations will be in next week's blog. Revelation is a great word - it suggests surprise, subterfuge, glamour - but you never know, I could be revealing a dead stoat.

Craig@craigdutton.orangehome.co.uk

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: