General / Craig Dutton / 03 September 2007 /

Craig Dutton considers some of the burning issues of golf betting

The recent results on tour have led me to believe that perhaps form means nothing at all. The usual suspects have been there or thereabouts, but previous unknowns have been catapulted from obscurity with lovely rounds. You look at them and think - these players may be golfers. Alternatively, they may have just graduated with a BTEC in Joinery from Dusseldorf Polytechnic, but wherever they're from, they're chopping the courses to mincemeat. It suggests one of two things. Either current form means nothing, or the talent pool in golf is more Olympic-size than paddling. I'll opt for the latter. It's yet another reason for us to look beyond the media-sexy golfers for our bets. As I mentioned two blogs ago, some of these players get handed any old price, but the majority of them are capable of very good standards of golf.

Who is Martin Erlandsson?! It's awful not having pictures to watch. As one player drifts, and another's price collapses, anything could be happening. Often in snooker, a player doubles in price just because he forgets to chalk his cue - and anyone who watches in-running snooker will know it isn't that much of an exaggeration. For all I know, Erlandsson could be beating Forsyth atop the head with a lumphammer. Or maybe he just got a birdie.

Watching the market expand and contract with the volatility it sometimes has can be very misleading. We have to remember as traders that many price changes are pro-active as opposed to reactive. Big layers can't afford to react to major events, they have to anticipate them. It can cause price changes that don't truly reflect the nature of play. It happens on a daily basis in horse-racing. A horse comes to the two-furlong pole, pulling double, wondering if he's even in a race, probably whistling sarcastically at his equine friends. His price collapses to 1.40. The jockey presses the button, he finds nothing because he's a bridle horse, beats two home, and we're all left shaking our heads as to why he was odds on in the first place. If you've invested faith in a golfer, stick with it. He will drift, he will be gambled, the market fluctuations can only tell us so much. Take the plunge, don't just stick your foot in to check if the water's cold.

Well he tied for 18th, which is clearly abysmal. Still, it's the first time in a long time I've had baited breath on day four. I may never bet again. Still, Cabrera is 38.0 for the Deutsche Bank Champs. Get in.

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