General / Paul Krishnamurty / 28 August 2007 /

Pro-punter Paul Krishnamurty tries to answer the perennial quesiton for golf fans

So what are the correct pre-tournament odds for Tiger Woods?

That is once again the conundrum facing backers and layers ahead of this week's second leg of the new Fedex Cup play-offs, the Deutsche Bank Championship. Having side-stepped the Barclays Classic complaining of tiredness, we must surely expect to see a fit, fresh and motivated Woods this week as he attempts to recover lost ground.

In a world-class field of 120, the natural inclination for many will be to lay Tiger at the current odds of 3.1, irrespective of the many variables concerning current or previous course form. And using simplistic long-term trends, layers would marginally have the odds on their side. Of the 143 PGA Tour events he's played this century, Woods has won 44, making the 'correct' odds to be 3.25.

However a different picture emerges when looking strictly at Woods' performance over the last year and, more importantly, in the prestigious tournaments that matter most to him.

In 2007, Woods has five wins from 13 PGA Tour events, suggesting odds of 2.6. But extend those figures to the 2006 Open Championship, the first Major tournament after the death of Tiger's father following a long illness - which undoubtably had a negative impact on his focus - and the case for backing becomes compelling. Woods has won 11 of 19 PGA Tour starts since that date, which in betting terms equates to a 1.73 chance.

The longer term trends in big events also imply 3.2 is much too big. Of 54 Major championships or WGC events this century, Woods has won 24, equating to odds of 2.25. With a $10M bonus the prize for emerging triumphant over the last three weeks of the Fedex Cup, I think its safe to assume he will be taking this just as seriously.

The final statistic worth noting is form specifically at this week's venue, TPC Boston. As defending champion, Woods is clearly well suited to a course with a reputation for suiting the longer hitters. In 2006 the Deutsche Bank was Tiger's fifth consecutive tournament victory, this year it would be his third in a row. Nevertheless, that was his first course win from four attempts which in crude statistical terms makes him a 3/1 chance. Taken against all those other longer term stats plus the tremendous form shown on his last two winning outings at Southern Hills and Firestone though, only a madman would put those odds up.

Of course analysis of the pre-tournament market does not always translate to betting in-running.

No matter what the outcome, there's always a temptation for layers to open their in-running book with a lay of the short-priced favourite or at least wait for a better price. Given the ebbs and flows of a tournament, this can still prove a profitable strategy even if Tiger wins.

But laying the Tiger early in his last two events has proved very costly. He won by eight shots at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, and was never available at better than his early pre-tournament quote of 3.9. And in the USPGA at Southern Hills, he drifted from 3.3 to 4.6 after the first round, but was heavily odds-on by the weekend.

This week's field is world-class, but no more so than in those two previous events. He won fairly comfortably on this course last year, by two shots from a peak-form Vijay Singh with the rest a further six shots back. Once again, Woods led after the first round and never traded higher than his pre-tournament odds of 3.25. So all things considered, I'm a backer rather than a layer at these opening quotes.

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