Arnold Palmer Invitational preview
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Editor /
15 March 2007 /
Greg Owen will revisit the scene of his worst memory in golf this week, when he returns to Florida to compete in the Arnold Palmer Invitational tournament.
Owen looked set to clinch his maiden PGA Tour at the event - formerly known as the Bay Hill Invitational - a year ago as he lagged up a birdie putt to the 17th hole.
But, inexplicably, the Englishman missed with his par putt from 40 inches then carelessly missed the return back to four-putt, walk off the green with a double-bogey five and hand the tournament to a speechless Rod Pampling.
To this day, Owen cannot fully explain what happened to him in the final round, but he is back to try to go one better this week and can be backed at 270 to make quick amends for his aberration.
Owen is not without a chance either, having already shown a liking for the course and produced some good form so far in 2007, with his best finish coming at Pebble Beach when he came in tied for fourth behind Mickelson.
But the player everyone looks likely to have to beat is world number one Tiger Woods, who returns to tournament action after a two-week break following his defeat to Nick O'Hern at the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship last month.
Woods has won his last seven stroke play events on the PGA Tour and will start a warm favourite in the Betfair market to continue that run, where he is currently trading at 3.55 to win and 1.62 to come in the top five.
Mickelson, seeking his second victory of the season, is available to back at 15 to win ahead of Ernie Els (20), man-of-the-moment Swede Henrik Stenson (24), Vijay Singh (29) and Retief Goosen (30).
This week sees the build-up to the first major of the year start in earnest, with the US Masters just three weeks away.
With just two tournaments left after this one to sharpen up their games, seven of the top ten in the world and 15 of the top 20 will be looking for positive signs to take forward into next month.
While Woods made this tournament his own between 2000-2004 when he was unstoppable at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge course, he has not necessarily had things his own way over the last three years and this week's result may not be the foregone conclusion that many people expect.
Since lifting his fourth title here, the American has amazingly failed to break 70 in his last 11 rounds at the venue and could only finish tied for 20th place in 2006.
Mickelson has also not been seen in action since surprisingly losing to Justin Rose in the early rounds at the Accenture tournament, but he has already got a victory tucked safely under his belt this year.
He is a past winner of the event, back in 1997, and could be a good bet for backers. He is trading at around 3.6 to place in the first five.
The same applies to South African duo Els and Goosen and they look sure to have plenty of followers this week.
Behind Woods, Els is the most consistent player in the world at the moment having finished in the top ten in his last 13 stroke play tournaments.
The world number six (4.6 to come in the top five this week) looks to be back to close to his very best after struggling for most of last season and knows what it takes to win here, having done just that in 1998.
Els looks to have quickly adjusted to his new Callaway equipment and watch out for 'the Big Easy', especially if he makes a good start and holes a few putts early on.
Goosen could easily be coming into the tournament on the back of his second win of 2007, having narrowly missed out at the Johnnie Walker Classic at the start of the month.
On that occasion the putts didn't drop for the 39-year-old, but he looks comfortable with his game and could be worth following.
It will be interesting to see how Stenson, 5.6 to finish in the top five this week, copes with the added attention on him in his first outing since his victory at the Accenture, which lifted him up to fifth in the world rankings.
But in such a high-class field, there are a number of other players who may come into the reckoning in Florida this week.
Trevor Immelman (46 to win) is one of the most improved players on the PGA Tour while Geoff Ogilvy, the same price as Immelman, is playing as well, if not better, than when he won the US Open last year and is joint favourite at 4 to finish as top Australian with O'Hern.
Few deserve a victory more than Australian Robert Allen (34 to win), who has gone six years without a win on tour but has managed five top ten placings already in 2007.
FedExCup leader Charles Howell III appears attractively priced at 32 to win and 8.4 to come in the first five, while 2004 Bay Hill champion Chad Campbell could be worth watching and is available at an attractive 140 to repeat his success three years ago.
Aaron Baddeley - 65 to win - has been attracting plenty of attention in the early markets after his good start to 2007, while it would be no surprise to see a strong challenge from the European contingent.
Justin Rose and Paul Casey and Niclas Fasth will be keen to build on their good performances at the Accenture tournament, and are available at around 70 to win.
Luke Donald (65) has struggled over the last few weeks to produce his 'A' game but is usually strong in tournaments before the US Masters, while Darren Clarke (150 to win) would relish a repeat of last year's third-place finish having dropped out of the world's top 50.
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