The Big Match Tactical View: West Brom v Everton

Michael Cox
27 September 2015

Ross Barkley has been in fine form

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Monday sees a clash of styles at the Hawthorns, with a managerial meeting between Tony Pulis and Roberto Martinez. Michael Cox looks at the tactics, while Alan Thompson previews the betting...

"West Brom have kept three clean sheets in a row"

West Bromwich Albion v Everton
Monday 20:00, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: West Brom 3.211/5, Everton 2.56/4, The Draw 3.412/5.

Clash of Styles

Tony Pulis and Roberto Martinez are very different coaches - the former an old-school manager who concentrates upon defensive discipline and direct attacking, the latter a modern coach more concerned with possession play and dominating matches. This will be a clash of styles, and will probably be about the Baggies frustrating the away side.

Pulis is likely to name an unchanged side from the XI which narrowly defeated Aston Villa in the Baggies last league game. His 4-1-4-1 system has looked very solid defensively, with Claudio Yacob scrapping in front of the back four, and Craig Dawson playing out of position at right-back, tucking inside to provide support to the two centre-backs.

Jonny Evans has settled quickly, and his positional sense means Pulis can field Chris Brunt at left-back without worrying about that side of the defence being exposed.

Saido Berahino's return to the side has boosted the Baggies' attacking threat, and he's likely to continue on the left with Jose Salomon Rondon leading the line. Although they're not technically playing as a strike duo, they provide different qualities, and means West Brom can counter-attack through Berahino's speed, or with Rondon's ability to feed off long passes.

Selection problems for Martinez

Martinez has major injury problems coming into this game, with John Stones the latest to collect a knock - he's considered doubtful. Kevin Mirallas' suspension isn't helpful either.

Nevertheless, Everton have been coping well in recent weeks, with their defensive record particularly encouraging. The defence itself has performed well, with Brendan Galloway particularly impressive, but it's also been about the position of the midfield, who have shielded the backline expertly, with James McCarthy and Gareth Barry performing their roles expertly.

Here, Everton probably won't have to deal with West Brom players floating between the lines, however, with only James Morrison an occasional threat in that respect. It might be more about a young defence being given a physical test by Rondon.

Toffees to have more of the ball

Everton will almost certainly dominate possession, probably at around the 60% mark. The danger is that Martinez's side can hold onto the ball for too long, and their most impressive performances this season have come when they've used the ball quickly, particularly in a fine 3-0 win away at Southampton.

Romelu Lukaku is good at running the channels, although it will be difficult for him to find gaps in West Brom's backline, as they defend so narrow.

Ross Barkley has been impressive at leading counter-attacks and has improved his end product massively this season. Steven Naismith will probably start on one flank, and make runs in behind the defence to reach any penetrative balls.

Low-scoring game

It's difficult to imagine there being many goals here. West Brom have kept three clean sheets in a row, while Everton would have the same record but for Nemanja Matic's thunderbolt a couple of weeks ago.

West Brom's defensive, patient style will probably bring out Everton's predictable worst - it feels like Martinez's side are better when the opposition come onto them, there's a midfield battle to get the upper hand in the centre, and they have space to break into. This might not be a thriller.

The Betfair Traders View - Alan Thompson

On the face of it West Bromwich Albion have made the worst home start for any team in the Premier League with just one point from a possible nine, conceding six and scoring just two from their three home games. However, those fixtures were against Man City (0-3), Chelsea (2-3) and Southampton (0-0).

Last season though The Baggies' home form wasn't that great wining seven of their 19 games and against bottom half sides, they only won three of their ten fixtures, losing five of them. All seven of their home wins last season were to nil and the season before they only won four home games and again they were all to nil. If you think the away team can score at The Hawthorns then a lay of the home side would have been successful 100% of the time over the past two seasons. Last season they conceded 26 goals on home soil, only Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Sunderland conceded more (27).

The Toffees are undefeated on the road this campaign and are yet to concede a goal, the last time they kept four away clean sheets in a row was back in August 1995. Last season on the road Everton lost 10 of their away matches, but only three of those defeats came against bottom half sides, they won half of their away games against such opposition and only failed to score once (at Hull City, lost 2-0).

Tony Pulis made 10 changes to his side that lost 3-0 at Norwich midweek in the Capital One Cup but is expected to recall most of those rested. Everton won their away fixture against Reading in the same competition but will go into this game without Kevin Mirallas who is still suspended and possibly John Stones who is a doubt after he limped off midweek.

I think this could be a stalemate but the draw priced at 3.412/5 doesn't offer much appeal, I would rather take on the low-scoring draws and dutch back 0-0 @ 9.89/1 and 1-1 @ 7.413/2 to give dutched odds of 4.22 in the Correct Score market.