The Big Match Tactical View: Tottenham v Arsenal

Michael Cox
05 February 2015

What approach will Arsene Wenger use this weekend?

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The weekend's opening fixture is often one of the most exciting games of the season - the north London derby. Michael Cox considers the tactics, while Alan Thompson has the betting lowdown...

"it feels like Arsenal will create more chances than Spurs, but Kane and Eriksen are on fire"

Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.654/6

Tottenham v Arsenal
Saturday 12:45, BT Sport 1
Match Odds: Tottenham 3.412/5, Arsenal 2.35/4, The Draw 3.65.

The north London derby is always one of the most anticipated and entertaining fixtures on the Premier League calendar, and it's no different this time around.

Both clubs are in their best form of the campaign, with Arsenal winning three league games in the row for the first time, and a Harry Kane-inspired Spurs surging up the table. They're just two points behind Arsenal, and a victory here would see the home side leapfrog the Gunners and Southampton - for at least a couple of hours - into that coveted final Champions League spot. This feels like a huge game.

Arguably the major point of interest is the approach used by Arsene Wenger. Usually we know exactly what to expect from Arsenal, but in recent weeks Wenger has deployed his side in a more cautious manner than expected when needed - see the excellent counter-attacking victory against Manchester City last month - and Arsenal were also highly defensive at White Hart Lane last season, when they won the game through an early Tomas Rosicky thunderbolt, then sat deep and defended. Perhaps they'll play the same way again.

Wenger has used a 4-3-3 formation for the last two Premier League games, although switched to 4-2-3-1 for the FA Cup game against Brighton in between. News that Alexis Sanchez will miss the game has probably spared Wenger from a tough selection decision because the four attacking players that were used in the 5-0 thrashing of Aston Villa last time out - Santi Cazorla, Mesut Ozil, Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud - all found the target.

Mauricio Pochettino has chopped and changed in recent weeks, particularly in midfield, although the attacking part of his side is now heavily dependent upon Kane, who has reached 20 goals in all competitions already, and Christian Eriksen, the division's top-scoring midfielder. Arsenal must watch these two extremely carefully - Kane's quick, composed finishing has been highly impressive, while Eriksen has a habit of scoring late, crucial goals from the edge of the box. Coquelin might be in for a big test against the tricky Dane.

Pochettino deployed Mousa Dembele in an advanced midfield position against West Brom - he was involved in the opening two goals, and is likely to start again here. He could be shifted deep alongside Ryan Mason or Paulinho, who was given a surprise start at the Hawthorns, but Pochettino might opt for a more defensive option against the threat of Arsenal's multiple playmakers. Nabil Bentaleb could be involved after his Africa Cup of Nations participation ended last weekend, and might be a vital player.

In terms of individual battles, it will be interesting to see who Wenger fields on the flanks. Walcott against Danny Rose could be a brilliant battle in terms of sheer pace, while on the opposite flank Wenger might be a little worried about Kyle Walker's overlapping, should he field Ozil on that side, because the German likes to drift inside and doesn't always take up a good defensive position.

Arsenal are in good attacking form and it feels like they'll create more chances than Spurs because of their wealth of creative players, but Kane and Eriksen have been so effective at turning half-chances into goals. I can imagine both sides scoring here, so will back that outcome at 1.654/6.

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Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.654/6

The Betfair Trader: Alan Thompson

Just two points separate the two north London giants and with neither currently occupying a Champions League position the stakes are as high as they could be for this always gripping derby.

Both clubs arrive in good, similar form with just one defeat and one draw in their last eight games, Arsenal, losing at Southampton (2-0) and drawing at Liverpool (1-1), while Tottenham slipped up at Selhurst Park (2-1) and drew (0-0) with Manchester United at White Hart Lane.

The Gunners arrive on the back of a comprehensive 5-0 demolition of Aston Villa last week, they have now won their last three Premier League games without conceding and scored 10 goals in the process. Alexis Sanchez has been ruled out again with a hamstring injury and will be a miss for Arsene Wenger but with Theo Walcott among others there is still plenty quality available for selection.

While Arsenal have been keeping clean sheets of late, Tottenham’s shutout last week was only their third since beating Southampton 1-0 in October (16 games). In eight of their last nine wins both teams have scored and if they are to claim three points here it certainly looks like that may have to happen again. If you fancy a Tottenham win then take the 13.0 available on 2-1 in the Correct Score market - it's a popular result for Spurs, with seven of their 12 wins this season coming by that scoreline.

The best trend for me comes with first half goals. Arsenal have been leading at the break in each of their last five wins in all competitions and have scored in the opening 10 minutes in three of those games. The last seven games at White Hart Lane have seen 14 goals scored before the break. I will be looking for this to get off to a quick start by backing over 1.5 goals in the First Half Goals 1.5 market @ anything better than 2.75.

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