The Big Match Tactical View: Swansea v Manchester City

Michael Cox
13 May 2016

Can Manuel Pellegrini end his Manchester City spell on a high?

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Manchester City need to avoid defeat to secure Champions League football for next season. Michael Cox looks at the tactics, while Alan Thompson finds some promising bets...

"Manuel Pellegrini’s major decision is whether to start Yaya Toure in probably his last game for City."

Swansea v Manchester City
Sunday, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports 2

Match Odds: Swansea 6.611/2, Man City 1.558/15, The Draw 4.84/1.

Manuel Pellegrini's final match as Manchester City manager is of huge importance. His side require a result away in Wales to confirm their place in next season's Champions League - although Pellegrini himself, of course, won't be there.

In truth, Manchester City's form over recent weeks has been highly disappointing. Various reports suggest Pellegrini has become extremely lethargic since being informed of his imminent dismissal, and that attitude has rubbed on the players.

That could be extremely dangerous ahead of this trip to Wales - City have a worrying habit of taking their foot off the gas early, and a defeat this weekend could let Manchester United in to take fourth slot.

City start the weekend two points ahead of United - although they also boast a significant advantage in terms of goal difference, and therefore effectively only need a draw here. If the scoreline is 0-0 going into the final stages, don't expect the away side to push for a victory they don't truly require.

Pellegrini's side are helped by the fact Swansea manager Francesco Guidolin - recently handed a new two-year contract after impressively steering clear of relegation - plans to rest key players.

That's highly unusual for a final day, but the Italian has allowed his Euro 2016 stars - Lukasz Fabianski, Ashley Williams and Gylfi Sigurdsson - to skip this game in order to prepare for the summer.

In simple terms it seems like a simple nice gesture, although Guidolin probably thinks they might play half-heartedly in order to avoid injury, and he might be better off with more committed understudies instead.

The most unfamiliar Swansea started will be goalkeeper Kristoffer Nordfeldt, a 26-year-old Swede signed from Herenveen last summer. He's featured in three cup matches this season, but will make his Premier League debut this weekend and will surely be tested by City quickly.

Williams' replacement will be Jordi Amat, a talented technical centre-back who brings the ball forward well, but lacks Williams' strength and positional sense. Sigurdsson, meanwhile, didn't start in the surprise 4-1 victory at West Ham last weekend, and therefore Swansea's midfield and attack should be unchanged.

Guidolin has played a 4-3-3 in recent weeks, which sees Jack Cork playing the holding role to allow Leroy Fer and Ki Sung-Yeung to make forward runs into attack.

Upfront, they stretch the play with the use of Modou Barrow and Wayne Routledge out wide, while the pace of Andre Ayew means Swansea attempt to attack more quickly than under previous regimes, playing balls in behind the opposition.

Nicolas Otamendi and Eliaquim Mangala have a habit of pushing forward aggressively when high up the pitch, and Swansea's quick front three may have space to sprint into.

Pellegrini's major decision is whether to start Yaya Toure in probably his last game for City. In truth, the Ivorian's contribution in the second half of the season has been minimal, and whether fielded as the number ten or as more of a box-to-box player, he's causing City tactical problems.

Pellegrini would be better off leaving him out, with Fernando and Fernandinho in the two deep midfield positions, and Kevin De Bruyne allowed to drift around from his favoured, central number ten role.

With Jesus Navas seemingly a surefire started despite his lack of end product, and Sergio Aguero upfront, the other major decision is on the left. With David Silva out, Samir Nasri and Raheem Sterling are the two options. Sterling might be a better bet, creating a highly quick front quartet which can attack Swansea's defence quickly.

What City really require, however, is a couple of players to dominate this game and put them in control. Without Vincent Kompany or Pablo Zabaleta setting the standard in terms of professionalism, it might be up to Fernandinho or De Bruyne to take the game by the scruff of the neck and ensure City's Champions League qualification.

The Betfair Trader's View - Alan Thompson

Francesco Guidolin has done a fantastic job and has been awarded a two year contract, which will give the club, players and fans a boost going into this game. Swansea were going nowhere at Christmas when they found themselves in the relegation places, a win today could potentially see them finish in the top half.

City have also sorted out their managerial position but I can’t help but think the whole Manuel Pellegrini/Pep Guardiola deal has been a major reason why City are still not assured of a top four finish.

The good news for City is that it is in their own hands after United failed to beat West Ham in midweek, but they are not in great form with just one win in their last four and they face a Swansea side that have been excellent at home winning their last four. A draw will be enough to clinch fourth place but it will be a nervous last 10 minutes if they are going into that stage of the game without a lead – especially if United are winning.

The Swans have only won one of their home games against the top seven (2-1 Manchester United) but they have only faced Southampton (lost 1-0) out of those top seven sides in 2016 when their form improved. They have certainly shown no sign of “cruising” to the end of the season and I think they will be looking to sign off with a home win.

It’s been a crazy Premier League season and it may not be over yet Manchester City who have traded at 1.011/100 for a top four finish (currently 1.132/15) only need a draw to secure that but I don’t think this will be easy, again the odds are way out of line with my numbers (due to the circumstances).

City I had at 1.9520/21 (they are 1.558/15) and because of that Swansea and the Draw are way out of line. I had the draw at 3.953/1 (it is 4.84/1) and Swansea at 4.216/5 (they are 6.611/2). I will be backing Swansea on the Asian Handicap +1.0 & +1.5 at anything better than 1.910/11.