The Big Match Tactical View: Sunderland v Middlesbrough

Michael Cox
19 August 2016

Can David Moyes collect his first victory as Sunderland manager?

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With both north-east sides looking for their first victory of the campaign, this should be a fascinating derby. Michael Cox looks at the tactics, while Alan Thompson finds some promising bets...

"This is likely to be a frantic, furious game in the opening 10 minutes"

Sunderland v Middlesbrough
Sunday, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Sunderland 2.68/5, Middlesbrough 3.211/5, The Draw 3.39/4.

Newcastle are no longer in the Premier League - but Middlesbrough's promotion means there's still a north-east derby in the top-flight this season, and there will be plenty of local pride at stake for their trip to Sunderland.

While Sunderland fans will no doubt have taken great pleasure in Newcastle's demotion to the Championship, they could end up amongst the biggest losers from their plight. Sunderland boasted a famously excellent record against the Magpies in recent seasons, and will be hopeful their form in derby matches extends to matches against Middlesbrough, too.

Sunderland's team selection for this game, however, is completely unpredictable and there's a chance David Moyes could make up to six changes from the side that was narrowly defeated by Manchester City last weekend.

The centre-back partnership last Saturday was Lamina Kone and Younes Kaboul, but with the former injured and the latter seemingly on his way to Watford, Moyes could instead turn to the combination of John O'Shea, fielded in midfield last weekend, and Papy Djilobodji.

In midfield, O'Shea's place could be filled by Paddy McNair, the unfortunate scorer of an own goal last weekend, although Jan Kirchhoff would be a better solution if fit. Out wide, Wahbi Khazri and Adnan Januzaj will hope for starts after Duncan Watmore and Lynden Gooch contributed little against City, although the central attackers, Fabio Borini and Jermain Defoe, should remain unchanged.

Moyes is likely to use the 4-2-3-1 formation he's generally favoured over the last few years at Everton, Manchester United and Real Sociedad, and while Sunderland lost at the Etihad last weekend, their defensive shape looked very good - as you'd expect from a Moyes side.

Aitor Karanka is also expected to stick with his 4-2-3-1 system following last weekend's 1-1 draw with Stoke. There will be at least one change, with midfielder Marten de Roon out injured with a hamstring problem, meaning Adam Forshaw is likely to make his Premier League debut in the engine room alongside Adam Clayton.

Middlesbrough also boast a very organised shape defensively. They're particularly strong down the left flank, where the excellent full-back George Friend combines well with veteran Stewart Downing, and this could be their best chance of dominating a particular zone of the pitch, especially against inexperienced Sunderland right-back Donald Love.

Expect Middlesbrough to concentrate heavily on crossing, with Alvaro Negredo potentially up against a very makeshift centre-back partnership, although Gaston Ramirez provides creativity from the number 10 position, and should fine space between the lines.

Middlesbrough might be exposed by the pace of Defoe and Borini, however, especially in counter-attacking situations. This is likely to be a frantic, furious game in the opening 10 minutes, but once it settles sown into more of a pattern, counter-attacking might be both sides' primary approach.

You suspect, too, that both sides might be content with a draw here - Moyes is fundamentally a cautious manager who will be determined not to lose his first two matches, while Karanka knows a point away from home in the derby would be an acceptable result, and maintain Middlesbrough's unbeaten record. Odds of 3.259/4, unusually low for a draw, reflect both sides' probable intentions here.

The Betfair Trader's View - Alan Thompson

If there is one thing that Sunderland have been good at recently in the Premier League it is the derby games (unbeaten in their last nine with Newcastle United). With Newcastle relegated though, they will be looking to secure their “survival” points by getting the better of newly-promoted local rivals Middlesbrough in the first Wear-Tees derby since 2009 (Sunderland unbeaten last four home and away).

David Moyes will be under pressure to win this in his first home game in charge and he will be desperate to get the season up and running after the Manchester City defeat. That reversal last week wasn’t unexpected but this game is different, these are the games he will need to win to survive. However, it may not be that easy, promoted teams are always dangerous in August, he will only have to look at the 3-1 home defeat to Norwich City they suffered in their opener last season

Of the three promoted teams I think it is Middlesbrough that have the best chance of survival and they secured their first point last week with a home draw against Stoke City. They have spent a bit of money in the summer and the loan signing of Alvaro Negrado could be very interesting.

Sunderland haven’t won any of their last 16 Premier League games in August (home or away), their last win in August was 1-0 at the Stadium of Light against Manchester City in 2010. The draw looks the most obvious outcome to me but I don’t like the 3.211/5 available in the Match Odds. I will take a chance on 1-1 @ 7.26/1 and have a saver for that stake on Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.68/5.

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