The Big Match Tactical View: Manchester United v Southampton

Michael Cox
10 January 2015

Can Louis van Gaal do the double over Ronald Koeman?

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Manchester United recorded a rather fortunate 2-1 victory over Southampton last month - can Ronald Koeman get his revenge on his old foe Louis van Gaal? Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle, while professional trader Alan Thompson lends his betting expertise...

"Van Gaal might require a substitute or a formation switch in order for United to press home their advantage"

Back Draw/Man Utd in Half-Time/Full-Time at 5.49/2

Manchester United v Southampton
Sunday 16:00, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Manchester United 1.855/6, Southampton 4.84/1, The Draw 3.9.

December's meeting between Louis van Gaal and Ronald Koeman - two Dutch managers who have fallen out dramatically in the past - was an interesting tactical battle.

Koeman's Southampton dominated the game, Van Gaal's Manchester United only managed three shots, and yet it was United who won 2-1. Despite winning, it will be Van Gaal who might change his approach for the return game, with Koeman likely to ask for more of the same.

Van Gaal's injury problems in the centre of defence appear to be clearing up, and he could field Phil Jones, Chris Smalling and Jonny Evans in tandem for only the second time this season, after the trio played together at Stoke on New Year's Day. They should be capable of marshalling Graziano Pelle perfectly well - the Italian tends to drop deep towards play, and United will need to concentrate on picking up the midfield runners getting beyond him.

Van Gaal's problem is now in the wing-back positions. Rafael da Silva, Ashley Young and Marcos Rojo are all out, and Luke Shaw, Daley Blind and Antonio Valencia are considered doubtful. Therefore, it's extremely difficult to know which players will start here - it could be Shaw and Valencia, two defensively aware players, or it could be Adnan Januzaj and perhaps Angel Di Maria, who will concentrate more on attacking.

The positioning of United's wing-backs could be the game's key feature. In the reverse meeting, United allowed Southampton's wide midfielders to go free, and they found pockets of space between the lines to create good situations.

Here at Old Trafford, James Ward-Prowse and Dusan Tadic are likely to play the wide roles, and the latter could be a huge danger by cutting inside from the left and controlling the play. Michael Carrick, United's deep-lying midfielder, will have a big responsibility in terms of shutting down that space.

Central midfield is the area where Southampton might feel they can outmuscle Manchester United. Steven Davis will play at the top of the triangle and break forward to combine with Tadic and Pelle, while Morgan Schneiderlin and Victor Wanyama will sit deeper and attempt to put Southampton in command of the game.

United's combination in midfield will probably involve two of Wayne Rooney, Juan Mata and Angel Di Maria, so it will be about physical power versus technical quality. Di Maria's long-awaited return could transform United in the centre of the pitch, however, and make them more direct and purposeful in possession.

Alternatively, Rooney could be moved up the pitch into a centre-forward position alongside Robin van Persie. Radamel Falcao has now managed a few goals, but still doesn't look entirely sharp, and Van Gaal might consider that Rooney dropping deep from the centre-forward position would cause Southampton more problems.

Southampton have an excellent defensive record, and concede fewer shots than any other side in the Premier League because of their high defensive line, keeping the opposition away from goal. Any balls in behind them can be problematic, though, and Van Persie has become very good at prowling the channels and shooting from narrow angles. He scored both goals in the reverse fixture, and is understandably favourite to open the scoring again here.

The market suggests United are odds-on favourites, and considering their unbeaten - if slightly unconvincing - 10-game Premier League run, it's hard to disagree.

Nevertheless, I think Southampton will put up a good fight, and Van Gaal might require a substitute or a formation switch in order for United to press home their advantage. I'll back Draw / Manchester United in Half-Time / Full-Time at 5.49/2.

Recommended Bet
Back Draw/Man Utd in Half-Time/Full-Time @ 5.49/2

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Ronald Koeman’s side have recovered well after a 'sticky patch' at the beginning of December where they lost four on the bounce. They are now unbeaten in their last four including a win over Arsenal and a draw against Chelsea – however both those results were at St Mary's. Away from home they still have the top two to play after their trip to Old Trafford, having already lost when visiting Tottenham, Arsenal and Liverpool.

The Red Devils are coming into this game having lost just one of their last 15 Premier League starts and that defeat was at the Etihad. They have however, faltered a little lately with three draws in their last four but those three draws were all away from Old Trafford at Aston Villa, Spurs and Stoke. At home their only defeat of the season was on the opening day when Swansea beat them 1-2. They have also scored in all 10 home starts this campaign, scoring two or more in seven of them, and 12 of Manchester United’s last 15 home games have produced an over 2.5 goals result.

I think United at Old Trafford will have too much for Southampton and Louis Van Gaal can’t really afford to slip up here if he wants to keep the pressure on the top two, at the same time a win here will also increase their advantage over the Saints who are just a point behind them before this game.

I will be dutch backing United to win 2-0 @ 9.4 and 2-1 @ 10 giving dutched odds of approx 4.8. I will also be backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.1 as a saver for the dutch bet stake, this acts as a form of insurance but with the chance of hitting both bets if United can win 2-1.