The Big Match Tactical View: Manchester United v Bournemouth

Michael Cox
13 May 2016

Wayne Rooney will continue in a midfield role

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Manchester United need a victory - and for Swansea to do them a favour against Manchester City. Michael Cox looks at the tactical battle, with Alan Thompson concentrating on the betting.

"United’s passing tempo has been so sluggish that opponents are allowed time to drop deep into a compact block"

Manchester United v Bournemouth
Sunday 15:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: 1.434/9, Bournemouth 9.08/1, The Draw 5.14/1.

Four years ago, Manchester United needed a victory on the final day - and for Manchester City to slip up. Their reward? The title.

This time around, they need the same results for a considerably more modest prize: fourth place, and Champions League football for next season. It could be the difference between Louis van Gaal keeping his job, and the Dutchman being sacked.

Only time will tell whether the Dutchman stays at Old Trafford for next year - but he simply can't afford to end this season with anything other than a victory. It will probably be futile, with Manchester City odds-on favourites to win at Swansea, where they only need a draw because of superior goal difference (here's our preview of that one). Still, United must give themselves a chance.

Van Gaal's team selection in recent weeks has been highly unpredictable, and he may make changes to the team which lost 3-2 in the final game at Upton Park on Tuesday night. In particular, left-back Marcos Rojo turned in yet another poor performance at left-back, and Cameron Borthwick-Jackson, who impressed with some fine performances earlier in 2016, must surely be due an opportunity. John Fosu-Mensah might also hope for a start in place of Antonio Valencia on the opposite flank.

In midfield, Michael Carrick was introduced as a half-time substitute in midweek but will hope to get the nod over Morgan Schneiderlin here. Against a Bournemouth side likely to play 4-4-2, Carrick might be allowed time in midfield to put his foot on the ball and dictate play, sliding passes through to Wayne Rooney and Juan Mata between the lines.

Rooney is playing a slightly awkward left-of-centre midfield role in Van Gaal's 4-3-3 formation, with Mata drifting inside from the right.

On paper this works reasonably well, with those two finding pockets of space and allowing Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford to run in behind the opposition defence, stretching the play, but United's passing tempo has been so disappointingly sluggish that opponents are allowed time to drop deep into a compact block. Bournemouth, one of the Premier League's best teams in terms of defensive shape, might not be troubled by United's slow approach play.

It would be harsh to say Bournemouth are 'on the beach' by this stage - although their players wouldn't have far to travel. Nevertheless, just one point from their last four games is a poor record for a team who have proven capable of causing the big boys problems, including in the reverse fixture, a 2-1 victory.

Bournemouth's approach here will be about deep defending and counter-attacking, probably a more reactive approach than Eddie Howe usually prefers. Benik Afobe will start upfront, possibly with support from Callum Wilson, who deserves a start after such an injury-hit season.

Out wide, Junior Stanislas and Max Gradel will attack from wide, and will get support from overlapping full-backs Simon Francis and Charlie Daniels, who caused problems in the reverse fixture.

Andrew Surman and Harry Arter will hold their position in the centre of the pitch, trying to deny Rooney and Mata space in dangerous positions. Therefore, the tactical battle here should be contested down the flanks.

Manchester United proved incapable of defending set-pieces away at West Ham in midweek, which has often been a problem for Bournemouth, too. Stylistically, these sides aren't entirely dissimilar, despite the difference in shape.

Ultimately, however, the fact United need a victory can't be underestimed, and they boast a good record at Old Trafford - unbeaten in seven, despite frequently starting matches very slowly. That could be on the cards again here: an unspectacular but eventually comfortable win, with United supporters following events from Swansea closely.

For our betting preview with updated odds for the rearranged Man Utd v Bournemouth game then please follow the link.

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Manchester United lost the opportunity of having a fourth place finish in their own hands by losing to West Ham midweek. They still have a slim chance of making the Champions League with a win here but their destiny will be decided elsewhere. All they can do is ensure they win here and then hope for a favour from Swansea.

Bournemouth have nothing to play for and can enjoy their day out at Old Trafford having already achieved their season goal of staying up. Eddie Howe's men have only picked up one point (0-0 Leicester) on their travels to the top five and, with just one win in their last seven starts (2-1 away at Aston Villa), it is surely just a formality that United take this.

However, I simply can’t back Louis van Gaal's men at 1.444/9 when under normal circumstances they should be about 1.75/7. The draw I had at 3.8514/5 - it can be backed at 5.49/2 - and Bournemouth I had at 6.25/1, they are 9.08/1.

A lay of Manchester United would normally be the call given these discrepancies but I simply don’t see them losing. So instead I will look at the Asian Handicap market, where I will be looking to back Bournemouth +1.5 at around 1.855/6.