The Big Match Tactical View: Man Utd v Liverpool

Michael Cox
14 March 2014

This is Steven Gerrard's toughest test in the holding role

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Liverpool are 11 points clear of Manchester United, their strongest lead over the champions for decades - but United start the match as favourites. Michael Cox and Alan Thompson preview Sunday's opening Premier League game...

"Gerrard might not cope with so many players in his zone, but United will suffer against Liverpool's counter-attacks."

Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.185/40

Manchester United v Liverpool
Sunday 13:30,
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Manchester United 2.568/5, Liverpool 3.02/1, The Draw 3.55.

This fixture always been eagerly anticipated, but there's a particular sense of excitement ahead of this weekend's game. For the first time in years, Liverpool are going into the game in significantly better shape than Manchester United - which means Liverpool's players will be keen to prove their superiority, and United's will be keen to gain revenge.

With the FA Cup and European Cup taking precedence over the last week, these two sides have been out of the limelight - both have had a full week of preparation for this match, and therefore should be focused, well-drilled and physically fresh.

David Moyes seems likely to continue with the side which overcame West Brom last time out. He seems to be favouring an approach based around Juan Mata and Adnan Januzaj drifting inside from wide starting positions, although it wouldn't be surprising if he plays Ashley Young instead of Januzaj. Moyes considers Young his best defensive option on the flank, but considering United's left-winger will be up against the cautious and technically limited Jon Flanagan, he can afford to be bold, and go with Januzaj.

He also has a decision to make at centre-back, having used Chris Smalling and Phil Jones together for the first time against West Brom. Rio Ferdinand or Nemanja Vidic might be favoured for their experience, but considering the pace of Liverpool's forwards, the younger defenders might be better suited to this game. Michael Carrick and Marouane Fellaini is United's first-choice midfield combination.

Brendan Rodgers used a midfield diamond in the 3-0 victory at Southampton, but while the result was positive, the shape actually caused some problems. Liverpool were outnumbered down the flank and Steven Gerrard found it extremely difficult to track the movement of Adam Lallana, and this is the area United must expolot.

Rodgers will probably revert to his favoured 4-3-3 shape, but Gerrard will still be left isolated between the lines and will find it extremely tough to cope with United's two wide players drifting inside - at times, Wayne Rooney, Mata and Januzaj will all be in positions between the lines, and Gerrard will need help from his fellow midfielders.

This will tempt Rodgers into using Joe Allen rather than the more adventurous Coutinho, for the Welshman's positional disciplined as much as his possession play. Coutinho was quiet against Southampton, and was overshadowed by his replacement, Raheem Sterling, who scored moments after coming on. This could be a game for the Brazilian to sit out.

Liverpool's full-backs will also have a difficult task, should both Mata and Januzaj start. Flanagan and Glen Johnson can't allow their opponents to drift inside untracked, but following too closely will open up space on the flanks for Rafael and Patrice Evra to swing crosses towards Robin van Persie.

Liverpool's wide forwards don't always track back, with the obvious benefit that they remain in space to start counter-attacks, and this could be a game of cat-and-mouse in wide areas. Inevitably, the battle between Evra and Luis Suarez will get most attention, but Rafael against Sterling could be interesting too.

Clearly, Rodgers will hope Suarez, Sterling and Daniel Sturridge will lead the Liverpool charge without too much support from midfielders, although Jordan Henderson was excellent in the reverse fixture and will bomb forward past Carrick.

United probably won't be able to cope with Liverpool on the break, regardless of the identity of their centre-backs, and therefore Liverpool might not attempt to dominate possession. Rodgers has assembled a disciplined and prolific side, and 3.052/1 for a Liverpool win looks very tempting.

I see plenty of goals here - I'm unconvinced Gerrard will be able to cope with so many players in his zone, but also find it difficult to think United won't suffer against Liverpool's counter-attacks.

There's a slight worry this game will become scrappy and petulant, given the nature of the game - and the Evra v Suarez battle won't help. Nevertheless, the tactical battle suggests goals, so I'll back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.185/40.

Recommended Bets
Back Liverpool to win at 3.052/1
Back Over 3.5 goals at 3.185/40

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

There hasn’t been a draw in the last 13 meetings between these two at Old Trafford and the last five meetings in Manchester have seen both teams scoring in games that have produced Over 2.5 Goals.

United have struggled against top half opposition this season, winning on only two occasions, both at home (Arsenal 1-0 and West Ham 3-0), they drew four and lost six of their other fixtures against top half opponents. However, they are unbeaten at home in their last five starts and they have managed to find the opposition’s net in 12 of their last 13 Premier League starts.

Liverpool’s away games this season have resulted in 54 goals (averaging 3.86 per game) they lead the league in away goals with 31. The Reds have failed to score in only one of their 14 away fixtures (Arsenal 2-0) and 11 of those away days ended up Over 2.5 Goals.

Brendan Rodgers' men have scored five goals on the road twice this season - at Spurs and Stoke - and three on four occasions, at Everton, Southampton, Sunderland and Fulham.

Early goals have become a bit of a speciality with Liverpool and they have only failed to open the scoring in two of their last 15 league fixtures (Villa and Fulham), leading at half-time in 11 of those fixtures.

I am looking to see if they can do that again, but expect United to fight back in their biggest league game of the season, and will be backing with split stakes in the Half Time/Full Time market taking Liverpool/Draw a 16.0 and Liverpool/Man Utd at 30.0.

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