The Big Match Tactical View: PSG v Chelsea

Michael Cox
16 February 2015

Edinson Cavani should return to the PSG attack

Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City
Fri 8 Aug, 19:45

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Chelsea narrowly defeated PSG over two legs last season but Jose Mourinho's side have improved significantly since then, and start this tie as strong favourites to make the quarter-finals. Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle, while Alan Thompson considers the betting...

"Chelsea have progressed significantly since last season, but Mourinho might be content with a draw."

PSG v Chelsea
Tuesday 19:45,
ITV1

Match Odds: PSG 2.8415/8, Chelsea 2.915/8, The Draw 3.39/4.

We're increasingly seeing repeat meetings in the knockout stages of the Champions League - Manchester City versus Barcelona and Schalke versus Real Madrid are also very familiar - but considering how close this tie was last season, there should be no complaints here.

Chelsea narrowly progressed from last season's tie after a 3-1 defeat win in Paris was followed by a 2-0 home win at Stamford Bridge, courtesy of Demba Ba's late goal, and therefore Laurent Blanc's side will be keen for revenge.

In truth, Chelsea have progressed significantly since then, while the French champions have regressed - which means Jose Mourinho's side are strong favourites to qualify for the quarter-final stage. The question, however, is about their level of attacking ambition away in Paris, where Mourinho might be content with a draw.

Mourinho's question is about the format of his midfield. There's no doubt Nemanja Matic and Cesc Fabregas will start - and that already brings a new dimension to this battle, considering neither played in this fixture last season, with Matic cup-tied and Fabregas still at Barcelona. It's a considerably stronger partnership than Mourinho could select last season, and therefore PSG are unlikely to outplay Chelsea in this zone.

But will they actually play as a partnership? Fabregas' play depends upon bombing beyond others into attack, which can leave Matic exposed in front of the Chelsea backline. Mourinho will be keen to avoid these situations, and therefore there's a good chance he'll play Ramires in midfield somewhere, possibly with Fabregas moving to the head of the midfield trio, and Oscar dropping out. Alternatively, Ramires could start on the right flank, in place of Willian.

Dropping Oscar probably makes the most sense, but the problem is that Chelsea need to be disciplined high up in midfield. Whereas PSG lack a really talented playmaker who can operate between the lines, the passing of Thiago Motta and Marco Verratti from deep positions can be incredibly dangerous, and Oscar excels at closing down those deep-lying passers. It's a tricky conundrum, but it's probably best to assume that (a) Mourinho will be cautious and (b) he'll make the right decision.

Elsewhere, probably the only choices are in goal, where Petr Cech was outstanding against Everton last week, but Thibaut Courtois remains the number one, and at centre-back where Gary Cahill's experience might be preferred to Kurt Zouma's energy.

Laurent Blanc has a different problem entirely: injuries. The likes of Lucas Moura, Serge Aurier and Yohan Cabaye are all out injured, while Javier Pastore and Blaise Matuidi, both important at this stage last year, are both doubtful too.

This means there's a good chance youngster Adrien Raboit will come into the midfield, and Blanc might be nervous about he and Verratti becoming overrun in the centre. He'll be praying Matuidi makes this game, as he'll need someone to match the dynamism and energy of Chelsea, and Ramires in particular.

Elsewhere, expect Edinson Cavani to return to the PSG side, probably on the right of a front three alongside Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Ezequiel Lavezzi. Cavani missed a crucial chance late on at Stamford Bridge last year and will keen to prove himself here, while Lavezzi caused Chelsea considerable problems at this stage three years ago in his Napoli days. His pace will be an outlet on the break if Branislav Ivanovic pushes up the pitch - although he might remain cautious in this away leg.

PSG's creativity from attacking positions might come primarily from Ibrahimovic. He likes to drop into deep zones in European matches, and will be aware that John Terry doesn't like being pulled up the pitch. With Terry also vulnerable to the pace of Cavani breaking in from the right, this could be PSG's most profitable move - Ibrahimovic acting as a false nine, and the two quick wide players running in behind.

Chelsea must also be wary of set-pieces. Thiago Silva, David Luiz, Motta, Cavani and Ibrahimovic are all excellent in the air - although Chelsea should be able to match this quintet with Terry, Ivanovic, Matic, Diego Costa and Cahill or Zouma. Still, this area could be crucial and it could be worth backing a centre-back to score.

I'd be hugely surprised if Chelsea lost here. However, because there's a good chance they'll be cautious away in Paris, I'd be reluctant to back them to win outright. Draw No Bet sounds ideal (this pays out if the visitors win, and you get your money back on the draw) - Chelsea are available at 2.0421/20.

Recommended Bet
Back Chelsea Draw No Bet at 2.0421/20

The Betfair Trader: Alan Thompson

It was only last year that these two met in the knockout stages and it didn’t look good for The Blues after a first leg 1-3 defeat in Paris, but that away goal proved invaluable as they managed to beat PSG 2-0 thanks to Demba Ba's late effort. Both sides are looking to continue good recent campaigns in the tournament, PSG aiming for their third successive quarter-final, while Chelsea could make it to the last eight stage for the fourth time in five years and seven out of the last nine Champions League campaigns.

I am sure Saturday wasn’t quite the St Valentine’s Day the Paris fans were expecting, but leading 2-0 at home against Caen with only two minutes left to play and ending up drawing 2-2 is only half the story. PSG were reduced to nine men following injuries to Serge Aurier (who has only just returned from the African Nations tournament), Yohan Cabaye, Blaise Matuidi and Marquinhos. Early reports suggest only Matuidi will line up on Tuesday. As a result of this PSG have drifted from around 2.75 to 2.86. All this happened while Chelsea of course had a weekend off.

Laurent Blanc’s men will have to dust themselves down and get over this quickly. PSG sit third in the league and while they will be disappointed with that position, they are unbeaten in nine matches in all competitions, winning seven. They also boast an excellent European home record, a defeat of Ajax in their last group fixture made it 32 unbeaten at home in UEFA competition, 22 of them won. The last time they lost a home tie was in the 2006/07 UEFA Cup against Hapoel Tel-Aviv.

Chelsea lead the Premier League by seven points, while their league form is good, just one defeat in their last 10 starts, they have shown a weakness in the cups. Three of their last six starts have been in cup competitions and none have been won any in normal time, losing to Bradford City and drawing twice with Liverpool at 90 mins. The Blues, however, are the only English club to have won in Paris when they beat PSG 0-3 in the group stages of this competition in 2004.

I can’t see Chelsea losing this but equally it is hard to win in Paris, so the draw seems the most likely outcome but available at 3.3 it’s also quite short. I will take a chance on the game not being a high scoring draw and will dutch back 0-0 @ 9.8 and 1-1 @ 7.2 in the Correct Score market to give approx odds of 4.1 which offers much more appeal than the 3.3 on the draw in the match odds market .

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