The Big Match Tactical View: Newcastle v Manchester City

Michael Cox
18 April 2016

Yaya Toure has often performed well against Newcastle

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Newcastle are still fighting for Premier League survival, while Manchester City still need to confirm their Champions League place. Michael Cox looks at the tactical battle, while Alan Thompson provides a betting angle...

"Sergio Aguero hit a hat-trick at the weekend, but Kevin de Bruyne was arguably even more impressive with his counter-attacking from the top of a midfield triangle."

Newcastle v Manchester City
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Newcastle 6.05/1, Manchester City 1.68/13, The Draw 4.57/2.

Newcastle gave themselves a chance of survival with their comfortable 3-0 victory over Swansea at the weekend - but this home meeting with Manchester City will inevitably be a much trickier test.

The Magpies were also helped by Sunderland's victory over Norwich. It's not often you find Newcastle supporters cheering on their biggest rivals, but that result ensures it's still a three-way battle to beat the drop. Newcastle are only three points away from survival, with a game in hand over Norwich - although Sunderland also have a game in hand, and are two points closer to survival.

Rafael Benitez is faced with huge injury problems and therefore doesn't have a great deal of options ahead of this match - although he still might make a couple of changes.

The first is up front, where Papiss Cisse was again disappointing against Swansea. The Senegalese striker is capable of great quality, but too often remains on the periphery of games, and substitute Aleksandar Mitrovic contributed more in 10 minutes than Cisse offered in 80.

It would be a surprise if Mitrovic wasn't given the nod up front this time, considering he's regularly made a nuisance of himself and created chances for others in recent weeks. He would surely cause City more problems than Cisse.

The other potential option is January signing Jonjo Shelvey, who was on the bench against Swansea. He will hope for a return to the side, although realistically isn't the type of player who fits into Benitez's side, and his positional indiscipline could open up space for Manchester City to break into.

Benitez is well-known for getting his sides defensively organised, but he won't be thrilled at the prospect of having to field a back four of Vurnon Anita, Jamaal Lascelles, Chancel Mbemba and Paul Dummett against an attack as dangerous as City's. Jack Colback and Cheick Tiote, assuming they continue as Newcastle's midfield duo, will need to protect them closely.

Manchester City were hugely impressive in their 3-0 destruction of Chelsea at the weekend, and while Sergio Aguero hit a hat-trick, Kevin de Bruyne was arguably even more impressive with his counter-attacking from the top of a midfield triangle. Those two will be a huge threat once again, with their counter-attacking combination play potentially deadly.

Samir Nasri is suffering from a small muscle problem having played more minutes than he could handle following his return from long-term injury, so David Silva will probably drift inside from the left flank, with Jesus Navas providing the width from the right, engaging in a one-on-one battle against left-back Dummett.

Yaya Toure, seemingly coming to the end of his City career, has often been outstanding against Newcastle and needs to impress to guarantee his place in the semi-final against Real Madrid. He'll drive forward from a deep midfield role with Fernandinho playing just behind as cover. The Brazilian will mainly be concerned with watching the runs of Moussa Sissoko, although left-sided Georginio Wijnaldum plays very narrow and could also prove a threat.

Andros Townsend's battle against Aleksandar Kolarov could be interesting. City need the Serbian left-back to overlap, in order for Silva to drift inside - but Townsend is dangerous on the break too, and has hit two goals in two games.

Newcastle have given themselves a fighting chance of survival, but Manchester City's attack should have too much for their defence. Expect goals, and for City to get the lion's share.

The Betfair Traders View - Alan Thompson

Both sides had excellent results at the weekend that will give them a confidence boost coming into this one. Manchester City followed up their brilliant Champions League success with a Sergio Aguero hat-trick seeing off Chelsea 3-0, while the Magpies give themselves a real lifeline in the quest for Premier League survival by beating Swansea by the same scoreline.

Vincent Kompany and Raheem Sterling are expected to make a return for the Citizens on Tuesday night, Kompany is expected to start but Sterling could well just make the bench. There is no doubt that City will be looking to strengthen their grip on third place and history is certainly on their side. They are unbeaten in their last 18 Premier League meetings against Newcastle winning the last 12 in a row. The last time they lost to the Magpies was September 2005.

Newcastle's confidence will certainly have improved after the weekend, not just the win over Swansea but the narrowing of the gap to safety as well as the goal difference (6 goals) margin with Norwich. It is still a monumental task for Rafa Benitez's men to reach safety but a win here (by at least two goals) would see them climb out of the relegation zone. At home they always have a chance, against top half sides this season they have only lost twice (Leicester 0-3 and Arsenal 0-1).

Priced at 6.05/1 for at home win looks very tempting but Newcastle haven’t won back-to-back games since December and when you look at the opposition, it’s hard to see anything but a Manchester City victory. I will be backing Man City/Man City in the Half Time/Full Time market at 2.6213/8

Also, Aguero is on 99 Premier League goals coming into this, 10 of those goals have come against Newcastle and he scored five in 20 minutes the last time the sides met in October. At 4.57/2 in the First Goalscorer market he looks a very fair price to me.