The Big Match Tactical View: Liverpool v Man City

Michael Cox
03 April 2018

Will Pep Guardiola have a tactical trick up his sleeve?

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

It's an all-English Champions League quarter-final. Michael Cox provides the tactical analysis and trading expert Alan Thompson assesses the markets...

"Playing the increasingly immobile Vincent Kompany would be a huge risk against the nippy Roberto Firmino."

Liverpool v Manchester City
Wednesday 19:45, BT Sport 2.
Match Odds: Liverpool 3.02/1, Manchester City 2.546/4, The Draw 3.711/4.

Another goalfest?

This season's two Premier League meetings between these sides produced no fewer than 12 goals, but this is likely to be a tighter, cagier more tactical first leg.

In truth, neither of those two results reflected the balance of play. Manchester City thrashed Liverpool 5-0 at the Etihad but had been dominated for the first 20 minutes, while Liverpool's 4-3 win in the reverse game was largely about one excellent spell just after half-time. The sides have been relatively closely matched, with Jurgen Klopp seeming to cause Pep Guardiola more problems than any other manager.

Klopp's starting XI here seems relatively obvious. Loris Karius is now first-choice in goal, while injuries to Joe Gomez and Joel Matip means that Dejan Lovren will start alongside Virgil van Dijk. In the full-back positions, Andrew Robertson was superb up against Raheem Sterling in the league fixture at Anfield, while Trent Alexander-Arnold will begin on the right.

Midfield energy

In the centre of the pitch, Klopp needs plenty of energy because he'll want his side to press intensely from the outset. Jordan Henderson has regained his place in the deepest midfield role, while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is in good form to the right. The other slot could be filled by any of Emre Can, Georginio Wijnaldum and James Milner, although this decision won't change Liverpool's tactical approach significantly.

Going forward, it's the all-star trio of Mohamed Salah, who caused Nicolas Otamendi serious problems in the opening stages of the league fixture at the Etihad, with Roberto Firmino central and Sadio Mane playing from the left. Mane, whose controversial red card was crucial in the 5-0, scored a fine goal in the previous meeting between the sides.

Sterling upfront?

Guardiola has a couple of question marks in his starting XI. The first issue is left-back, where Fabian Delph and Aymeric Laporte are both doubtful, and Benjamin Mendy, while back in training, is surely not yet ready for a first-team place. Delph, a converted midfielder, and Laporte, a converted centre-back, are entirely different options, and this is clearly the zone where City must be secure in, up against the danger man Salah. Laporte is probably the better option, but Guardiola's decision will presumably come down to fitness more than tactics.

Guardiola must also make a decision about the centre-back to play between Otamendi and Kyle Walker. Vincent Kompany has got a run of games recently at the expense of John Stones, but with City likely to play a high line here, Stones might be the better option. The increasingly immobile Kompany would be a huge risk against the nippy Firmino, and the City captain be a prime contender to be shown a card if he starts here.

The midfield will surely be comprised of Fernandino, David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne, who link so wonderfully and will attempt to play through Liverpool's press. Then comes Guardiola's second major decision. Sergio Aguero is ruled out through injury, which means Gabriel Jesus is likely to start instead.

But, rather than playing the Brazilian upfront in the Aguero role, I've a sneaky suspicion that Guardiola will try something he used in a victory at Old Trafford just before Christmas - using Jesus on the flank, with Sterling deployed upfront as a false nine. This would cause Liverpool's centre-backs problems, while also making Henderson nervous about moving forward to press. It could be the game's key feature, and the fact Sterling might play as, essentially, a centre-forward means he might be overpriced in the First Goalscorer market too.

I quite fancy Liverpool to expose the weaknesses in the City backline and take a lead to the Etihad for next week's second leg. Backing the home side at 3.02/1 looks generous to me.

The Betfair Trader's View - Alan Thompson

If their Premier League meetings this season is anything to go by then this should be a cracker at Anfield on Wednesday evening. Liverpool lost 5-0 to Manchester City at the Etihad in September but then in the return fixture at Anfield, they inflicted their first and only defeat on Josep Guardiola’s side with an incredible 4-3 win. Liverpool scored three times in nine minutes in that game and in the end the 4-3 scoreline may have flattered City as Liverpool continued to go for goals and left openings at the back that City exploited to score twice in the last six minutes.

The Anfield faithful of course have seen plenty of memorable European nights and the atmosphere will again be superb, but this is a huge game for the current side and the club's first European Cup quarter final for nine years, in contrast this is only City’s second trip into this stage in their history.

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 14 European home matches (W9 D5), since a 3-0 loss to Real Madrid on 22 October 2014. Jurgen Klopp’s side picked up seven points at home in the group stage. They drew 2-2 with Sevilla before comprehensive victories against Maribor and Spartak Moscow. In the round of 16, they were impressive 5-0 winners away at Porto which made the goalless second leg at Anfield pretty irrelevant.

This could be some week for Manchester City, if they can get a positive result at Anfield and then wrap up the Premier League title against their local rivals United at the weekend, they can then turn all their attention to the home leg against Liverpool and possibly beyond.

City strolled to an easy away victory at the weekend just across Stanley Park but I think they will find Liverpool a tougher nut to crack than Everton. Liverpool in the Draw No Bet market at 2.226/5 will be my play.