The Big Match Tactical View: Liverpool v Manchester City

Michael Cox
01 March 2016

After Willy Caballero's heroics on Sunday, Joe Hart will be back in goal for City

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Manchester City triumphed at Wembley on Sunday, but can Liverpool gain revenge here? Michael Cox looks at the tactics, while Alan Thompson picks out some promising bets...

"Liverpool won’t be able to rely on such wastefulness from City in front of goal."

Liverpool v Manchester City
Wednesday 20:00,
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Liverpool 2.747/4, Manchester City 2.915/8, The Draw 3.55/2.

If you enjoyed Sunday's Capital One Cup final, then good news - the two sides will be battling it out once again on Wednesday evening, this time in the Premier League.

Sunday's match was a slow-burning encounter, enlivened by a penalty shoot-out and an unlikely hero, with Manuel Pellegrini's decision to stick with reserve goalkeeper Willy Caballero throughout the competition justified as the Argentine made three excellent penalty saves. Joe Hart, however, will be in goal for City this time around.

Tactically, the most interesting thing about Sunday's game was the positioning of Sergio Aguero. He deliberately played up against Liverpool's makeshift centre-back Lucas Leiva, following the Brazilian across the pitch when Mamadou Sakho's departure through injury forced Lucas to shift to the left.

Although Lucas coped well when Aguero had his back to goal, he had little answer for the striker's sheer speed - and Aguero often found space in behind Liverpool left-back Alberto Moreno, who remains extremely poor in a positional sense.

Injuries mean Liverpool could have an entirely different centre-back partnership this weekend, however. Sakho is unlikely to recover from his head injury in time to make this game, while Lucas is also considered doubtful. That means Kolo Toure is likely to start, probably alongside the returning Dejan Lovren. Whatever the centre-back combination, Aguero is likely to fancy his chances of finding the net - he had plenty of chances on Sunday, but didn't have his shooting boots on.

The only other worry is Daniel Sturridge, who was clearly struggling towards the end of Sunday's final. Klopp might decide to rest him here, especially as he has lots of alternatives. Christian Benteke or Divock Origi could lead the line, but it might make more sense to bring in Adam Lallana, with Roberto Firmino playing upfront.

Firmino was quiet on Sunday, but superb in Liverpool's 4-1 win over City at the Etihad earlier this season, constantly combining dangerously with Coutinho. Despite this potential change, Liverpool should play in a 4-2-3-1 system again.

Aside from bringing Hart back into the side, there are two areas where Pellegrini might make changes. First, his full-backs are almost interchangeable, and therefore Aleksandar Kolarov and Pablo Zabaleta might fancy their chances of a return in place of Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna.

Second, Yaya Toure is doubtful through injury, which could mean a starting place for right-wing esus Navas, with Fernandinho moving inside from the right-sided role he played against both Dynamo Kiev and Liverpool. Navas would stay in a much wider position and become involved in an old-school wing battle with fellow ex-Sevilla man Moreno.

David Silva was a threat from between the lines on Sunday and should be City's main source of creativity once again here. Neither Emre Can nor Jordan Henderson got particularly tight to him, and the Spaniard created the game's two clearest chances: the first for Aguero's first-half opportunity, saved by Simon Mignolet, then for Raheem Sterling's point-blank miss midway through the second half.

Liverpool must cope better this time, and won't be able to rely on such wastefulness from City in front of goal.

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Liverpool managed to extend the Capital One cup final to extra time and penalties on Sunday but ultimately, despite making the first save in the penalty shootout, they lost out in a very entertaining game.

With City not playing at the weekend and Leicester in action on Tuesday, there could be a 10-point gap for the Blues to make up by the time this game kicks off.

Manuel Pellegrini's men should come into this in high spirits, despite losing their last two league outings, both at the Etihad (Leicester 3-1 & Tottenham 2-1) and taking a hammering in the FA Cup at Chelsea. Since then they have all but secured their place in the last 16 of the Champions League and won a Wembley cup final. They don’t need to worry about the Champions League again now until mid March and can focus on three important Premier League games before that fixture, with Aston Villa and Norwich at home to follow this one.

The Reds won their last Premier League outing, hammering Aston Villa 6-0 at Villa Park, but they haven’t won a league game at Anfield since Boxing Day (beat Leicester City 1-0) and sit in ninth place, meaning the Europa League is their only realistic hope of qualifying for the Champions League.

No doubt this is the toughest of City’s next three games where they really need to take maximum points but I can’t see them losing here. I will be backing the visitors in the Draw No Bet market at 2.111/10

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