The Big Match Tactical View: Leicester v West Ham

Michael Cox
15 April 2016

Jamie Vardy ended his goal drought with two goals at Sunderland last weekend

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Leicester have won their last five matches - can they make it six in a row? Michael Cox looks at the tactics, while Alan Thompson finds some good bets...

"Claudio Ranieri will name an unchanged side yet again, meaning this XI will have started five games in a row"

Leicester v West Ham
Sunday 13:30,
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Leicester 2.01/1, West Ham 4.47/2, The Draw 3.814/5.

Leicester City require just three more victories to seal their first-ever league title - and having won their last five games, keeping a clean sheet in each, it's clear they're in title-winning mode.

West Ham United, meanwhile, have been enjoying the complete opposite type of match - their last four games have finished 3-2, 2-2, 2-2 and 3-3. However, another open, end-to-end game might favour Leicester, who remain best on the counter-attack.

As you were for Foxes

Claudio Ranieri will name an unchanged side yet again, meaning this XI will have started five games in a row.

While individual brilliance was the key to their impressive start to the campaign, in recent weeks partnerships across the pitch have proved more crucial: Robert Huth and Wes Morgan have been outstanding at the back, with N'Golo Kante and Danny Drinkwater protecting them excellently in midfield. Ranieri has no reason to change anything.

Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy are increasingly being denied space, but Mahrez has hit two important winners in 1-0 victories since the start of March, while Vardy netted twice against Sunderland last weekend to end a surprisingly long goal drought.

Hammers to return to back four

Slaven Bilic experimented with a back three in the 3-3 draw against Arsenal last weekend, but scrapped that system at half-time and used a 4-2-3-1 against Manchester United in midweek.

That formation should be the order of the day here, with Andy Carroll upfront alone, with closest support from Emmanuel Emenike on the right flank.

Dimitri Payet should drift inside dangerously from the left flank, but Manuel Lanzini is also a huge creative threat from the number ten role.

Mark Noble and Cheikhou Kouyate are given license to bomb forward into attack, although this often leaves the defence exposed to quick counter-attacks, which Bilic needs to be extremely wary of here.

Wide areas will be key

The most interesting battles will be out wide. Aaron Cresswell has enjoyed a fine season at left-back, but here he'll be tasked with stopping the Premier League's most impressive performer this season, Mahrez, and won't be able to count on much help from Payet, who often vacates his left-sided position. West Ham will need to get one of their central midfielders out to stop Mahrez darting inside onto his left foot.

On the other flank, meanwhile, makeshift right-back Michail Antonio will look to overlap, pushing Marc Albrighton back into the left-back zone. Albrighton often plays much deeper than Mahrez, performing his defensive duties well.

Christian Fuchs will be able to tuck inside and stay close to Robert Huth, in the knowledge Albrighton will track back.

Leicester are strongest along the spine of the side, however, and because they're so compact and the holding midfielders stay in position, it will be interesting to see whether Lanzini and Payet find space. They might find themselves crowded out.

Of course, this isn't such an issue now West Ham can hang crosses up to Carroll, who hit a hat-trick against Arsenal last weekend.

Clearly, Leicester are built for defending crosses more than Arsenal, and neither Morgan nor Huth will be bullied in the air. Nevertheless, Carroll is difficult to stop for even the more towering, commanding centre-backs - and this is West Ham's most likely source of goals.

Leicester start as favourites, hovering around evens. The type of game, however, will be defined by West Ham's approach - do they attack the Foxes, or attempt to negate their strengths by sitting deep?

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

The Foxes can open up a double figure gap at the top if they beat West Ham this weekend, with Tottenham not playing until Monday night. However, to do that they will have to do something they haven’t managed all season – beat a top six side at the King Power. Three draws and a defeat, against Arsenal, is their record against the best sides this campaign.

Claudio Ranieri’s men though have picked up five wins in a row, without conceding, and have now mathematically confirmed Champions League football for next season. Once again they are at full strength and they will not make any changes to their starting 11. Of their last 10 Premier League wins, nine of them have been to nil, a sequence of results that stretches back to January.

West Ham have seen their push for a top four finishing position take a slight hit lately with some questionable refereeing decisions helping to produce a run of three consecutive score draws. They were also knocked out of the FA Cup midweek by Manchester United.

Slaven Bilic's men will have to quickly get over that if they want to keep applying league pressure to the two Manchester clubs above them. The Hammers have scored in each of their last seven starts so that run of consecutive clean sheets for Leicester could be under serious threat.

I think West Ham can cause Leicester some problems and with away wins already this season at Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool they have nothing to fear. I will be backing the east Londoners to put the brakes on Leicester’s title charge by taking them in the Draw No Bet market @ 3.185/40.