The Big Match Tactical View: Juventus v Real Madrid

Michael Cox
02 April 2018

Gonzalo Higuain will hope to score against his former club

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Zinedine Zidane returns to Juventus, the club where he came to prominence in the 1990s. Michael Cox looks at the tactics and Alan Thompson focuses upon the betting...

"Isco’s presence would mean Gareth Bale consigned to a role on the bench"

Juventus v Real Madrid
Tuesday 19:45, BT Sport 1.
Match Odds: Juventus 3.211/5, Real Madrid 2.56/4, The Draw 3.412/5.

Italy v Spain

The quarter-final stage is when the Champions League really starts hotting up, and this is a mouthwatering tie - the champions of Italy against the champions of Spain, and, of course, a repeat of last season's final where Real ran out 3-1 winners.

Juventus start this tie as underdogs, not a status they're accustomed to considering their domestic dominance in recent years, but few sides in Europe cope better with tactical challenges against supposedly superior opponents. Max Allegri's strategy has proved excellent in recent seasons, and Juventus are flexible and unpredictable, capable of playing in various ways.

Allegri is hampered, however, by the loss of both Miralem Pjanic and Mehdi Benatia through suspension. Pjanic, in particular, would have been vital in Juve's attempts to control possession, and the alternative is a partnership of Blaise Matuidi and, against his old club, Sami Khedira. They offer energy and tacticaly discipline, but aren't as comfortable in possession as Pjanic.

Juve to play with width

Allegri is likely to start with a 4-2-3-1 system. Perhaps the major question mark is the status of Mario Mandzukic, who hasn't trained properly because of injury and is therefore a doubt. He's often so important in big games, and scored a stunning bicycle kick against Real in the final last year. If fit, he'd probably start wide-left, becoming a second striker when Juventus have possession.

Assuming the Croatian is out, Allegri is likely to field Juan Cuadrado and Douglas Costa either side of Paulo Dybala, with Gonzalo Higuain upfront - another facing his former club. Cuadrado and Costa will have a big responsibility to track the runs of Marcelo and Dani Carvajal, because Real's system depends heavily upon width from full-backs.

Going forward, the wingers will also stretch Real's defence, which should open up pockets for Dybala to work in. Higuain will run the channels and provide a target for crosses, although he does have a habit of disappointing on the big stage. And this, while only a quarter-final, feels like a big stage.

Bale likely to be benched

Zinedine Zidane is making his first return to Turin since leaving Juventus as a player in 2001. He's likely to name a diamond midfield here, with the wonderfully creative Isco playing between midfield and attack, enjoying freedom to roam wherever he likes. He's hugely elusive and is capable of dictating matches, but also has a habit of dropping too close to his midfield teammates. His positioning will be interesting.

Isco's presence would mean Gareth Bale consigned to a role on the bench, with Cristiano Ronaldo playing in his favoured inside-left position and Karim Benzema acting as the targetman upfront. Those two will battle against Andrea Barzagli and Giorgio Chiellini, in what could be something of an old-school centre-back versus centre-forward contest.

Despite being away from home, Real are likely to control possession, especially considering the lack of Pjanic for the home side. Casemiro will watch Dybala carefully, but Toni Kroos and Luka Modric will have freedom to shuttle forward, spreading towards the flanks when Real have possession.

Modric was outstanding in last year's final and may find a pocket of space that Juve struggle to cope with, on the outside of Matuidi, and too deep for left-back Alex Sandro to push up and deal with. Modric is the type of player that can control the tempo of a game, the kind of player Juve will lack here.

Marcelo and Carvajal will provide the width, while Raphael Varane and Sergio Ramos will be happy keeping a high defensive line against Higuain. Perhaps the biggest question mark for the visitors is goalkeeper Keylor Navas who isn't particularly good at commanding his box. Juve might look to set-pieces to cause him problems.

I think this will be tight and cagey, with both sides playing the long game. Juventus might fancy their chances of playing on the counter-attack at the Bernabeu, and Real would be relatively happy with a draw too. I wouldn't rule out a 0-0, but I'll play it safe and back the draw at 3.412/5.

The Betfair Trader's View - Alan Thompson

It was just 10 months ago that these two European football giants met in the final of this competition in Cardiff, where Madrid ran out 4-1 winners and became the first team to successfully defend the trophy in the Champions League era. This is the 20th meeting between the sides and there isn’t that much in it, Madrid have won nine, Juventus eight and there have been two draws.

The Bianconeri, have an exceptional record in Turin and warmed up for this by beating AC Milan 3-1 on Saturday, they have lost only one of their last 75 home games in all competitions (W64 D10), the single defeat came on 14 October 2017, when they lost 2-1 against Lazio. They have also won the last four two-legged knockout ties against Madrid, and were the last side to eliminate the current European Champions in the competition, beating them in the 2014/15 semi-finals.

Madrid are formidable opponents for anyone though and since that 2015 semi-final first leg defeat against Juve, they haven’t lost any of their last 11 games against Serie A sides (W7 D4), they have lost just two of their last 27 European fixtures, their most recent defeat the 3-1 loss at Tottenham.

The market currently has Madrid as the favourites going into this one and I think they are a bit short, they struggle to keep clean sheets, having kept only two in their last 15 games in all competitions. f Juventus have any chance of getting past the Spanish giants they are going to have to perform well at home.

I will be backing Juventus @ 3.211/5 to take some sort of a lead to the Bernabeu.