The Big Match Tactical View: Fulham v Tottenham

Michael Cox
19 January 2019

Can Fernando Llorente step up in Harry Kane's absence?

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Can Tottenham cope without Harry Kane? Michael Cox and Alan Thompson preview Sunday's London derby.

"While there has been lots of negativity about Fernando Llorente, this is a World Cup winner who scored 15 Premier League goals for Swansea two seasons ago"

Fulham v Tottenham
Sunday 16:00, Sky Sports Premier League
Match Odds: Fulham 5.85/1, Tottenham 1.768/11, The Draw 3.814/5

Harry Kane's injury absence over the next couple of months is a serious problem for Tottenham Hotspur, who were struggling for attacking options anyway.

Mauricio Pochettino was already without Son Heung-min, who is at the Asian Cup, while Lucas Moura is also out injured and unlikely to return in time to be fit for this weekend's game. With those three all unavailable, Pochettino is forced to look elsewhere. The good news, of course, is that this weekend's opponents are the worst defensive side in the league - Fulham are conceding well over two goals a game, so Tottenham shouldn't have too many problems finding the net here.

Enter Llorente

The most likely system this weekend will feature Fernando Llorente playing upfront. While there has been lots of negativity about the Spaniard this season, and he's looked somewhat immobile since moving to Spurs 18 months ago, this is a World Cup winner who scored 15 Premier League goals for Swansea two seasons ago, and recently hit a hattrick in the FA Cup victory over Tranmere. It's not a bad option upfront.

Llorente is, of course, very different to Kane, Son and Lucas in terms of style. A target man rather than a runner, Spurs might look to provide more crosses into the box. Kieran Trippier remains something of a defensive liability but his delivery from the right remains exceptional, while Christian Eriksen is likely to start in the centre of midfield, but often drifts wide before sending brilliant deliveries into the box.

The key for Spurs, however, is to share the goalscoring burden around, and therefore their most important player over the next couple of weeks could be Dele Alli. While some people have suggested using him upfront as a makeshift striker, Alli depends upon timing late runs from deeper positions, and playing off Llorente makes sense here. Completing Spurs' front three should be Erik Lamela, another who can get into the box and into goalscoring positions.

Both sides likely to deploy a three-man defence

Spurs also have something of an issue in deeper positions, with Victor Wanyama still out, Moussa Sissoko a new casualty, Eric Dier unlikely to be fit and Mousa Dembele sold. Deploying Eriksen alongside Harry Winks seems the only solution.

That also means switching to a three-man defence, which should see Davinson Sanchez slotting in between Jan Vertonghem and Toby Alderweireld. In turn, Trippier can push forward down the right, and Danny Rose might come into the side in place of Ben Davies, who is less comfortable at wing-back.

Fulham are also likely to use a three-man defence, although this system hasn't entirely solved their defensive problems - and they managed to score two own goals at Burnley last weekend. Both Denis Odoi and Tim Ream look short of the quality required for this level, while Maxime Le Merchand is well-suited to the left-sided role in a back three but isn't much more convincing.

Spurs may dominate our wide

Joe Bryan and Cyrus Christie are both workmanlike players but might find themselves overpowered by Rose and Trippier out wide. In the centre, Jean-Michael Seri has shown some nice touches this season but has a habit of being caught in possession by heavy pressing sides, while Calum Chambers is continuing in a slightly awkward defensive midfield role. His history as a centre-back could be useful for tracking Alli's runs here, however.

Going forward, Fulham remain dangerous. Andre Schurrle scored a stunner at Burnley last weekend and regularly shoots from difficult angles, with Ryan Sessegnon providing the energy on the opposite flank. Aleksandar Mitrovic leads the line, and is a serious threat when provided with crosses into the box.

Ryan Babel will presumably be on the bench, but this is an odd signing - Fulham have enough attacking resources, and Luciano Vietto is probably a superior version of Babel anyway.

I fancy Spurs here. Kane's absence will prove problematic in the coming weeks, but not against a terrible defence who regularly chip goals against medicore opponents. I'll back Spurs to win at 1.768/11.

The Betfair Trader's View - Alan Thompson

Fulham are currently second bottom in the league and in deep trouble. To add to their problems this weekend they face the Premier League’s best away team, boasting 10 wins and 28 goals scored. However, two key players - Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min - responsible for 22 of their 46 goals this season, are both missing for Spurs.

If Fulham are to escape the drop then you suspect they will have to do it from their home games as they are still yet to win on the road. At home though they are a different proposition, they have only lost the same number of games as Tottenham (4) and 12 of their accumulated 14 points have been collected at Craven Cottage.

With a couple of main strikers missing, Tottenham may just have a bit more to do than the 1.768/11 price in the match odds suggests. Their defeat at home against Manchester United last week just about put an end to their title hopes, now nine points off the pace and Kane’s injury won’t have helped team morale. This will be the perfect time to play Spurs as they could be deflated coming into this, and will also have one eye on next week’s Carabao Cup semi-final against Chelsea.

The Asian Handicap is giving the home side a three-quarter goal head start and I think that is worth taking. I will be backing Fulham +0.5 & +1 at anything around 2.01/1.