The Big Match Tactical View: Crystal Palace v Watford

Michael Cox
22 April 2016

Can Crystal Palace reach their first FA Cup final since 1990, when Alan Pardew was in the side?

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Sunday's FA Cup is a meeting between two counter-attacking sides. Michael Cox provides tactical analysis, while Alan Thompson suggests some promising bets...

"With both sides playing on the break, this could be a somewhat patient and dull tactical battle."

Crystal Palace v Watford
Sunday 16:00,
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Crystal Palace 2.68/5, Watford 3.211/5, The Draw 3.412/5.

Whichever side triumphs here will start the FA Cup final as underdogs - but this is nevertheless a fascinating semi-final clash between two somewhat similar sides.

Both clubs started the season impressively, in the top half of the Premier League table at the turn of the year, but have slumped alarmingly in recent weeks.

Crystal Palace have got their season back on track and have steered well clear of relegation, but Watford have continued to struggle in recent weeks, and this week stories have circulated suggesting manager Quique Sanchez Flores' job is under threat this summer. That would be a remarkably harsh dismissal, but the Spaniard would surely secure his position with an FA Cup victory.

Both these sides also play in a similar manner: largely on the counter-attack. Neither side dominates possession regularly, with the midfield sitting back and protecting the back four.

Clash of styles

However, the manner of their counter-attacking is different. Alan Pardew's Palace generally concentrate on pushing forward down the flanks, as they're blessed with quick wingers but no prolific strikers, but Watford depend upon combination play from forwards Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo. In one respect it's a meeting between similar sides, on the other it's a clash of styles.

Palace were without several regulars in the 2-0 defeat to Manchester United on Wednesday evening, but this is surely because Pardew was resting key players, and not risking those with knocks, ahead of a huge game for the Eagles.

Scott Dann should be fit to reprise his centre-back partnership with Damian Delaney, and these two could be crucial. Watford's leading scorer Ighalo hasn't been prolific in recent months but remains a huge physical threat.

The role of Deeney is also interesting. Moving back into deep positions to keep the side compact, he wins more aerial duels than any other player, and those flick-ons are crucial in helping Watford to launch quick attackers.

Because Deeney plays deep, one of Palace's central midfielders will be closest to him, and therefore he could engage in a fierce physical battle with Eagles skipper Mile Jedinak.

Narrow Hornets?

With Nordin Amrabat suspended after being dismissed at Old Trafford, Sanchez Flores could decide to name four central midfielders together, either in a diamond or a very narrow flat four. He's played this system in big games previously, designed primarily to frustrate opponents, but might consider it pointless against a team predominantly attacking down the flanks.

Pardew will hope Yannick Bolasie is fit to return from a slight knock, and could deploy the tricky winger in a more central role, just behind Emmanuel Adebayor. Bakary Sakho and Wilfried Zaha will start on the flanks, potentially finding space against a Watford back four that defends extremely narrow.

Adebayor can be a matchwinner on his day, but his performances for Palace have been underwhelming. It's not his effort that should be questioned, as is often the case with the Togo striker, but simply his lack of end product. Perhaps still lacking match sharpness, he's not getting into goalscoring positions and hasn't been linking well with teammates.

With both sides playing on the break, this could be a somewhat patient and dull tactical battle in the first half. Neither have midfielders genuinely capable of penetrative through-balls - and it could be a slow-burning game, dependent upon a set-piece for the breakthrough.

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Neither of these sides have ever won the FA Cup and both have only appeared in the final once. A Palace team featuring Alan Pardew as a player lost after a replay to Manchester United in 1990 while Elton John’s Watford lost to Everton in 1984.

Both Premier League games this season produced away wins, Palace with a 1-0 victory at Watford and the Hornets winning 2-1 at Selhurst. Neither side has been in good form lately, Palace winning just one of their last 18 and Watford just one of their last eight, but they have both done enough to stay up and winning this game would set up a great end to the season for the winner.

Pardew’s side were well beaten at Old Trafford midweek but he did make seven changes and admitted having one eye on this game already. Jason Puncheon started on the bench while Joel Ward, Yannick Bolasie and Wayne Hennessey were all rested. Watford also made changes midweek and were equally as poor at West Ham, losing 3-1.

The Eagles have performed very well so far in the competition, having to get through three tough away games at Southampton (2-1), Tottenham (1-0) and Reading (2-0) as well as facing Premier League opposition in their only home draw in Stoke City (1-0). The Hornets had it a bit easier, with two home ties Newcastle (1-0) and Leeds (1-0) but also won away at Nottingham Forest (1-0) and then secured this semi final by beating Arsenal (2-1) at the Emirates.

Only two points separate these two in the league and their two games this season have been close. This could go all the way, so I will be looking to back both 'Crystal Palace Penalties' and 'Watford Penalties' at around 12.011/1 when the Qualifying Method market goes live.

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