The Big Match Tactical View: Crystal Palace v Hull

Michael Cox
12 May 2017

This is a must-win game for Marco Silva's Hull

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It's the most important match of the season at the bottom of the table - a draw means Palace will stay up, whereas Hull need a victory. Michael Cox looks at the tactics and Alan Thompson provides the betting expertise...

"Whoever is relegated will be paying for their mistakes in 2016, rather than their performances in 2017."

Crystal Palace v Hull
Sunday, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Crystal Palace 2.1411/10, Hull 3.814/5, The Draw 3.711/4.

Sunderland are down. Middlesbrough are down. There's just one relegation slot left - and these are two of the sides desperately trying to avoid 18th place, along with Swansea.

This isn't quite a relegation decider - Palace have a four-point lead over Hull. Meanwhile, both have tricky fixtures on the final day, with Hull at home to Tottenham and Palace visiting Manchester United - but it's nevertheless the biggest game of the season in terms of the relegation dogfight.

Palace's four-point lead, combined with the fact that there's only one game remaining after this, means their task is simple - avoid defeat. A clean sheet will confirm their survival and therefore Sam Allardyce is likely to be cautious with his approach here.

That might be inviting trouble, however, and Palace have slipped to three defeats in their last three games, dragging themselves back into the relegation picture. Last week's 5-0 thrashing at Manchester City illustrated the extent to which their defence can self-destruct, although it's unlikely Allardyce will replicate his use of Jeffrey Schlupp at centre-back this weekend.

Palace are understrength at the back, however, with Scott Dann, James Tomkins and most importantly, Mamadou Sakho all still unavailable, and Pape Souare a long-term absentee. Schlupp will return to the left flank with Damien Delaney and Martin Kelly at the heart of the defence, and Joel Ward moving out to right-back. Kelly may have to play with a protective face mask because of a broken nose, but should be fit enough to start.

Otherwise Allardyce is likely to name the same starting XI as in last weekend's defeat at City, chiefly because he has few options. James McArthur will partner Luka Milivojevic with Yohan Cabaye still out injured. Jason Puncheon will be handed the most advanced central midfield role.

We can expect a counter-attacking performance from Palace, even as the home side, with Wilfried Zaha the main threat. Andros Townsend should play on the opposite wing, although he has been troubled by an Achilles injury. Christian Benteke, quiet in recent weeks, needs to provide a big performance here.

Hull have found themselves in real trouble after last week's surprise 2-0 defeat to relegated Sunderland - Marco Silva's first home loss. The term 'must-win' is used somewhat too readily in modern football, but this is literally a must-win game.

Silva's main decision is about whether to continue with a two-man strikeforce. Both Abel Hernandez and Oumar Niasse were fielded upfront at Sunderland but there's a chance Silva may introduce an extra midfielder, like Tom Huddlestone, in order to beef up his central midfield zone and make Hull more solid. That would also allow him an obvious attacking shift if Hull end up chasing the game.

Lazar Markovic is out, which means Evandro might come into the centre of midfield, with Sam Clucas moving into a wide role.

There's unlikely to be much change in defence. Andrea Ranocchia and Harry Maguire will battle against Benteke, while the full-backs will arguably be Hull's most crucial players. Ahmed Elmohamady and Andrew Robertson are expected to provide attacking width, but must also defend solidly against Zaha and Townsend, and ensure Hull aren't exposed on counter-attacks.

Usually relegation dogfights are scrappy and unattractive, but both these sides have been perfectly attractive and broadly impressive since Allardyce and Silva took charge respectively. Indeed, with Paul Clement's Swansea also playing some good stuff recently, it's clear that

With Hull having to make the running, I think there could be goals in this one. Palace are a threat on the break, but their depleted defence doesn't look like keeping a clean sheet. I'll back Both Teams To Score, at 2.01/1.

The Betfair Trader's View - Alan Thompson

Three defeats in a row have left Crystal Palace in a precarious position, sitting just four points above the drop zone another defeat here and they would be going to Old Trafford next week still unsure of their future. They were well and truly embarrassed last week at the Etihad, losing 5-0.

Hull City also didn’t have a good week last week losing at home to Sunderland, a result that put them in the bottom three and a defeat here alog with Swansea winning at the Stadium of Light would see them relegated.

The Tigers have been terrible away from home all season, they have collected just six points on their travels (one win, three draws) and scored only nine goals, failing to score in more than half their away days. However, despite that they will know that a win here and a home game against what will be a deflated Tottenham side gives them a small glimmer of hope.

Selhurst Park hasn’t exactly been a fortress this season, with Palace losing 11 from their 18 games. A single point will see them safe for another season, while I am sure they will be going for the win, in their current form and a defensive back line that has been severely damaged through injuries, I am sure they would be more than happy to take a draw if offered.

I think Palace are a fair price at around 2.1411/10 to win this but I am conscious that a draw is good enough for them. I will be backing them to win in the Match Odds but I will also have to have a saver for that stake on the Correct Score 1-1 @ 7.87/1.

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