The Big Match Tactical View: Brighton v Manchester City

Michael Cox
10 August 2017

Kyle Walker should make his Manchester City debut at right-back

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It's the Premier League debutants against the Premier League favourites. Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle, and Alan Thompson is back with his betting tips...

"Brighton manager Chris Hughton knows all about the Premier League, and is likely to create an organised, disciplined and hard-working side capable of frustrating superior opponents."

Brighton v Manchester City
Saturday, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Brighton 13.012/1, Manchester City 1.341/3, The Draw 5.59/2.

The opening weekend of the Premier League often serves up a David v Goliath clash, and this time around it's the first-ever Premier League match at the Amex. This is a baptism of fire for Brighton, amongst the three favourites for relegation, against Manchester City, nailed-on title favourites.

Manchester City start the season trading at around 2.77/4 on the exchange, a price that reflects both their outright quality, and the fact this is an open, exciting Premier League title fight - almost every other major European league features the favourites at odds-on.

City arrivals

Pep Guardiola is under pressure to deliver in his second campaign at City, after an opening season when he seemed surprised by the nature of English football, and often ended up playing a side that felt more like a Manuel Pellegrini team than a Guardiola team.

For his second campaign, Guardiola has strengthened significantly at full-back. Kyle Walker's price tag caught many by surprise, but he was the division's best right-back last season and should have few problems adapting. On the opposite flank Benjamin Mendy was excellent at Monaco and should prove hugely effective, although he's a major doubt here and therefore Danilo, a third new full-back arrival, might deputise on the left despite being primarily a right-back.

Two other new arrivals should start. Bernardo Silva adds yet more creativity to a midfield zone also featuring his namesake David, and could play on the right flank. In goal, meanwhile, Ederson has replaced Claudio Bravo as the number one and looks to have huge potential, although it wouldn't be a surprise to see him struggling with the physicality of English football in his early days, which seems a common theme for goalkeepers recruited from the Iberian peninsula.

Brighton system

Brighton manager Chris Hughton knows all about the Premier League, and is likely to create an organised, disciplined and hard-working side capable of frustrating superior opponents. Whether they'll be capable of blunting Manchester City's incredible array of attacking options, however, remains to be seen.

Brighton are likely to set out in two deep banks of four, and concentrate on minimising space between the lines. This won't be an entirely functional system, however, and Hughton's side might feature three playmakers.

Pascal Gross was one of the Bundesliga's most creative players last season, and while he depended heavily upon set-pieces for his chance creation figures, he's also very much capable of pulling the strings in midfield himself.

Dutchman Davy Propper arrived this week from PSV for a club record fee, and while he may take time to adjust to the speed of the Premier League, is impressive in possession and has an eye for a clever though-ball.

But perhaps the biggest threat is Anthony Knockaert, the explosive wide midfielder who was named the Championship's Player of the Year last season. There's a suggestion he might struggle to make this game because of an ankle ligament problem, but if he starts on the left, Walker might be wary of overlapping too soon.

Brighton should also feature a wing threat on the right in the form of Solly March or Jiri Skalak, while Glenn Murray is likely to lead the line, but be forced away from goal for long periods by City's aggressive defensive line.

City strong favourites

Ultimately, however, it's tough to see Brighton managing to keep City's scoring down. The two Silvas and Kevin De Bruyne will ensure Guardiola's side retains possession, while the speed of Sergio Aguero or Gabriel Jesus might be too much for Brighton's defence to cope with.

The key area, however, might be down City's left. Leroy Sane seems set for an outstanding campaign, and his electric speed will surely overwhelm 36-year-old Bruno Saltor. Back Sane to open the scoring at 8.07/1.

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Eight times last season when Manchester City played away they started at a price below 1.51/2, they only failed to win at Middlesbrough, where they were held to a draw (2-2). However, they scored at least two goals in each of those games (23 goals in total) and only conceded four times.

Home sides in the Premier League starting at double figure prices as you would expect don’t tend to win too many of these fixtures and Brighton certainly have it all to do here. A draw is probably the best they could possibly hope for but I am expecting they would have to score at least twice to get that, so if you fancy a flutter on the draw, I would rather back 2-2 at around 30.029/1 in the Correct Score market which should give me options to even trade that position during the game if that score looks likely at any time.

For this game though my play will be in the Asian Handicap market, I will be looking to get with Manchester City -1.5 or even as high as -1.75 if I have to. Six of the eight games I mentioned in the opening paragraph were won by a two or more goal margin, Odds of 2.01/1 to do it again looks a good bet to me.

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