The Big Match Tactical View: Bournemouth v Liverpool

Bournemouth v Liverpool
Sunday 16:30, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Bournemouth 6.86/1, Liverpool 1.548/15, The Draw 5.04/1.

Bournemouth in poor form

Liverpool suffered an embarrassing 4-3 defeat in this fixture last season, but Jurgen Klopp's side nevertheless start as strong favourites against a side who haven't won in their last five matches.

Bournemouth played relatively well against Manchester United in midweek, keeping the opposition to a single goal victory at Old Trafford, but Eddie Howe's side failed to beat Swansea, Burnley, Southampton and Crystal Palace in their previous four matches. With games against Chelsea in the Capital One Cup in midweek followed by a trip to Manchester City, it's not unreasonable to think that Bournemouth could go eight games without a win in all competitions.

Howe has settled on a 4-4-1-1 system in recent weeks and is likely to deploy that system here, although there are injury doubts over various players, and we might see a heavily changed side, especially with so many matches at this stage of the season.

One of the key features of Bournemouth's side, however, is the emphasis upon the full-backs pushing forward into attack, and that is likely to be in evidence here. Right-sided Adam Smith and left-back Charlie Daniels love to push forward down the flanks, contributing to passing moves in the opposition half - but this could open up space for Liverpool to counter-attack into.

Howe rotation?

Howe's midfield selection will be interesting. Lewis Cook and Andrew Surman started in the 2-2 draw at Palace last weekend while Dan Gosling and Harry Arter played at Old Trafford. Surman alongside either Gosling or Arter seems more likely here, and Howe will instruct them to remain in cautious positions to guard against breaks through the middle of the pitch.

Out wide, Junior Stanislas and Ryan Fraser have started the last two matches without particularly impressing so there's a chance Jordon Ibe could come into the team against his former club. Upfront, Jermain Defoe will probably return having played only 20 minutes at Old Trafford, with Josh King in support. King will also be asked to pressure Liverpool's deep midfielder, probably Jordan Henderson.

Liverpool to counter-attack

Klopp's team selection came under plenty of criticism last weekend, when he rotated heavily for the 1-1 derby draw with Everton. But he fielded his 'fab four' - Coutinho, Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah - in midweek and Liverpool failed to break down West Bromwich Albion.

Salah has been struggling with a thigh strain, and the fact he played 90 minutes in midweek may indicate he's due a rest - but leaving out Liverpool's top scorer, and such a great counter-attacking weapon, should be considered a big risk here. Liverpool will have chances to break, and Salah could be the best option in those situations.

If Klopp does decide to leave out one of his star players, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain could come in. Liverpool have played a 4-4-2 system in recent weeks, and he's the kind of player who offers balance and defensive discipline to track the runs of Daniels.

Liverpool's defence continues to be a problem, especially away from home, but Bournemouth aren't the most potent side from set-pieces. King's runs from deeper positions may cause problems, but Bournemouth have appeared somewhat toothless in recent weeks.

I strongly fancy Liverpool here - their counter-attacking approach is built for tearing into possession-based sides like Bournemouth. 1.548/15 is a little short in the overall match odds market, but I think this will be comfortable for Klopp's men, so I'll back 'Liverpool -1' in the 'Bournemouth +1' market at 2.56/4.