The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Manchester United

Michael Cox
03 October 2015

Anthony Martial's speed will trouble Per Mertesacker

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Sunday's second televised game is fourth versus first, and an intriguing clash between two title contenders. Michael Cox looks at the tactics, while Alan Thompson provides the betting expertise...

"With Theo Walcott and Anthony Martial spearheading the sides, pace in behind will be crucial."

Arsenal v Man Utd
Sunday 16:00, Sky Sports 1
Match Odds: Arsenal 2.111/10, Man Utd 3.9, The Draw 3.8514/5

Arsenal and Manchester United are currently trading at roughly the same price to win the Premier League title - and this match could have a significant impact upon which is regarded as the most likely challengers to odds-on favourites Manchester City.

Arsenal have great individual attackers but Arsene Wenger hasn't yet found his best system, while Louis van Gaal has his team playing organised, structured football but is relying on a couple of very raw talents in the final third. This should be an interesting contest.

Wenger has one major injury problem. Laurent Koscielny is likely to be out for around three weeks, and therefore Wenger will field a partnership of Gabriel Paulista and Per Mertesacker at the back for only the third time.

This isn't a natural combination, and the majority of Gabriel's starts have been alongside Koscielny. It also means Gabriel starts to the left of the centre-back duo, which might expose Mertesacker to the pace of Anthony Martial, who likes working the inside-left channel.

Wenger became very irritated in his press conference on Friday when asked to say which goalkeeper he would select, after back-up David Ospina made a needless error in the midweek defeat to Olympiacos. It's difficult to see anything other than Petr Cech returning, however.

Elsewhere, Wenger seems to have a first-choice midfield and attack, although fitting them all in the same side has proved slightly problematic. Santi Cazorla's position alongside Francis Coquelin means Aaron Ramsey is stranded out on the right, a position he dislikes. Wenger might consider using Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain out on the right, because he has often performed very well against Manchester United and is capable of carrying the ball forward at speed.

Theo Walcott will continue upfront, with Olivier Giroud a Plan B. Walcott netted against a high defensive line against Leicester last weekend, while Giroud scored as a substitute when the opposition defended deeper - this approach is logical.

Van Gaal also has a major decision to make in defence. With Luke Shaw out, for Wednesday night's win over Wolfsburg he used Matteo Darmian at left-back, which meant Antonio Valencia playing right-back. The Ecuadorian is no stranger to that role by now, but he made a huge mistake for Wolfsburg's opener, dawdling behind the rest of the defence to play Wolfsburg's goalscorer onside. He's simply not a natural defender - and against Alexis Sanchez, United surely need a proper defender.

That probably means Phil Jones coming into the side, having made three 20-minute substitute appearances over the past fortnight. The precise format of the defence remains to be seen, though. Will Jones simply replace Valencia at right-back? Or will he play in the centre, allowing Daley Blind to become left-back and Darmian to switch to the right? It remains to be seen. The latter seems more logical, but also causes more disruption, which Van Gaal will want to avoid considering United have the best defensive record in the league.

Bastian Schweinsteiger controlled the game against Wolfsburg and will start up against his fellow World Cup winner Mesut Ozil, with Morgan Schneiderlin providing the mobility alongside.

Going forward, Juan Mata will drift inside from the right into dangerous positions, and is United's key attacker here. Wayne Rooney has been contributing little, and while he has a fine record against Arsenal, Francis Coquelin should be able to cope. Memphis Depay has faded a little after a promising start to life in England, and therefore Hector Bellerin should be confident of matching him.

It's not unthinkable that Van Gaal might start Ashley Young instead - he's fallen behind the pecking order despite regularly performing well, and deserves his first start since the opening day.

Then there's Martial, who should cause Mertesacker real problems, and Mata's through-balls could be particularly dangerous if United break quickly when Arsenal are high up the pitch. Both teams like playing possession football, but with Walcott and Martial spearheading the sides, pace in behind the opposition will be crucial here.

The Betfair Trader's View - Alan Thompson

The Gunners welcome table-topping Manchester United to the Emirates on Sunday and it is the Red Devils who have had the bragging rights in this fixture recently, losing just one of their last 13 Premier League meetings with the north Londoners.

United will arrive in high spirits after a come from behind victory against Wolfsburg in the Champions League. They are finding the back of the net with ease, too. After only scoring three goals in their opening four games they have now scored exactly three times in each of their last three Premier League starts.

Teenager Anthony Martial has been a key driver to the recent improvement, scoring three goals in his first three Premier League appearances.

Arsenal finished five points ahead of United last season despite not beating any of the top-five finishing sides at the Emirates. Over the last three seasons Arsene Wenger's men have only beaten Liverpool (2013-2014) and Tottenham (2012-2013) out of their last 12 home games against such opposition.

Midweek disappointment in the Champions League won’t have helped confidence as Arsenal failed to beat Greek side Olympiakos at home, leaving them bottom of their group and the prospect of having to get a result against Bayern Munich.

I am sure Arsenal will create a huge number of chances again but their failure to convert is becoming legendary. I wouldn’t want to put anyone off backing Manchester United at 3.9 but personally I would rather get the draw onside, and lay Arsenal at 2.111/10.

Three of the last five renewals of this fixture have been 0-0 at half time so I will also be having a little bet on 0-0 in the HT score market, as long as I can get better than 3.259/4.