The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Man Utd

Michael Cox
30 November 2017

Can Arsene Wenger record a 13th consecutive Premier League home victory?

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Saturday evening's fixture is the highlight of the weekend - Arsenal against Manchester United. Michael Cox looks at the tactical battle and Alan Thompson provides the betting lowdown.

"Arsenal have won their last 12 home Premier League matches"

Arsenal v Man Utd
Saturday 17:30, BT Sport 1.
Match Odds: Arsenal 2.68/5, Man Utd 3.185/40, The Draw 3.412/5.

Can United end Arsenal's dominance at the Emirates?

This is 4th against 2nd going into the Premier League weekend - and Manchester United probably need a win to keep their title chances alive, with Manchester City showing no sign of slowing down.

Arsenal, however, are in superb form at the Emirates. They've won their last 12 home Premier League matches, and thrashed Huddersfield 5-0 in midweek - albeit after a poor first half display.

Arsene Wenger's preparation for this game has been affected by the groin injury suffered by Alexandra Lacazette, who would probably have started upfront. His absence is likely to mean a recall for Manchester United old boy Danny Welbeck, although it remains to be seen whether he spearheads the side, or starts in the inside-left position with Alexis Sanchez playing upfront. The former seems more likely, with Welbeck's pace stretching the opposition defence.

The rest of Wenger's side seems very predictable, despite the fact Arsenal played on Wednesday evening - and with the Gunners competing in the Europa League this season, they're not accustomed to playing their first-choice XI twice in a week.

Few Arsenal changes expected

In a 3-4-3 formation, Laurent Koscielny, Shkodran Mustafi and Nacho Monreal will comprise the backline, with Hector Bellerin and Sead Kolasinac as wing-backs. Granit Xhaka will hold in midfield with Aaron Ramsey bursting forward into attack. Ozil, who was outstanding in midweek, will float inside from the right flank.

Jose Mourinho's formation is much less predictable. His first-choice system has been a 4-2-3-1 this season, but recently he's deployed more of a 3-4-1-2 system, and that's likely to be the case here, matching Arsenal's wing-backs.

Mourinho also has a recent injury to contend with, however. Nemanja Matic limped off in the 4-2 victory at Watford and is a major doubt here, which could mean Marouane Fellaini coming into the midfield zone, with Michael Carrick out injured. He would play alongside Ander Herrera, with the Spaniard likely to be given a marking brief on Alexis Sanchez, in the same way he's often nullified Eden Hazard effectively.

Pogba likely to be given attacking role

With doubts about Phil Jones and Eric Bailly, it's likely Chris Smalling will be flanked by Victor Lindelhof and Marcos Rojo. The former has looked nervous so far this season, and the latter has just returned from long-range injury and conceded a penalty with a clumsy tackle at Vicarage Road. They could be exposed by speed on the outside.

United's wing-backs are likely to be Antonio Valencia and Ashley Young, who scored two superb goals at Watford in midweek. They'll battle against Bellerin and Kolasinac.

Ahead of this defensive base, Paul Pogba is likely to be handed freedom to push forward from midfield. His powerful runs have caused problems since his return from injury, and he's also proved capable of hitting good through-balls for United's speedy forward. Romelu Lukaku is likely to peel off and play up against Nacho Monreal, but Arsenal's right of the defence has looked more vulnerable in recent weeks, and therefore Anthony Martial or Marcus Rashford might be the better bet for First Goalscorer here.

I fancy Arsenal to dominate this game. Manchester United tend to be rather negative away at big clubs, and Mourinho will want his side playing on the counter-attack. I'll back a draw at 3.412/5.

Recommended Bet:
Back the Draw at 3.412/5

The Betfair Trader's View - Alan Thompson

I think the Red Devils will have to be at their best if they are to get anything out of the Emirates on Saturday evening. They will be facing a resolute Arsenal side who are sitting fourth in the league and are on a 12 game winning run at home. Both sides won mid-week, United overcoming Watford 4-2 and the Gunners hammered Huddersfield Town 5-0. Realistically, both teams need to win to at least apply some form of pressure to leaders Manchester City and therefore it is likely to be an absorbing battle.

Jose Mourinho hasn’t won any of his last 11 away league games against ‘big six’ opposition, since a 2-1 win at Liverpool in November 2014 (D5 L6), with his sides scoring just one goal in the last 10 such games.

I am sure Mourinho would consider another draw a decent outcome here, but I think Arsenal represent some value in the match odds market at 2.568/5, despite the absence of Alexandre Lacazette I think they might have too much for United.

Ideally I was looking to back them on the Asian Handicap (0) or with the Draw No Bet as a bit of security but they are trading a bit too low at around 1.845/6 and I keep coming back to the 2.568/5 in the Match Odds. So I will be backing them to win this in 90 minutes ad continue that impressive home record.

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