The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Everton

Michael Cox
22 September 2018

Theo Walcott will be keen to show what his former side are missing

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After losing their first two games under Unai Emery, Arsenal are aiming for their fifth straight win in all competitions. Michael Cox and Alan Thompson assess tactics and betting respectively...

"Alex Iwobi could start out wide after an impressive performance in the midweek win over Voskla."

Arsenal v Everton
Sunday 16:00, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Arsenal 1.51/2, Everton 7.613/2, The Draw 5.14/1.

After a bright start under Marco Silva, Everton now haven't won in three matches and last weekend's home defeat to a struggling West Ham side will have raised particular concerns. Constant changes at the back, partly because of injury, has left the Toffees looking somewhat disjointed.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have recorded three wins in a row after their difficult start to the campaign, and start this match as strong favourites. There's been little recovery time after Thursday night's win over Vorskla, but then Unai Emery rotated some players anyway.

Torreira unlikely to start

This is likely to be a return to Emery's first-choice XI, although there remains a question about his preference in midfield. Last weekend in the win at Newcastle he used Matteo Guendouzi and Granit Xhaka in deeper positions, with Aaron Ramsey and Mesut Ozil higher.

Arsenal improved after the introduction of Lucas Torreira, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to understand why he isn't a regular. However, he picked up an injury in the midweek win over Vorskla, so this might not be the right moment for his first league start. Guendouzi may continue alongside Xhaka, who performed well at Newcastle. The role of Ramsey also remains something of a question mark, although he should continue here.

Iwobi to continue out wide?

Emery seems to have settled upon Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang in the same side, with the latter cutting inside from the left despite preferring a centre-forward's role. Lacazette has performed well upfront, however, linking play well and scoring a fine goal against Brighton.

Arsenal should field three quick runners who can get in behind here, with major question marks about Everton's offside line. Alex Iwobi could start out wide after an impressive performance in the midweek win over Voskla.

At the back Arsenal continue to look nervous when playing out through Petr Cech. Rafael Benitez asked Newcastle to press him last weekend and you can expect Everton to do the same thing here.

Tosun could be benched

It remains to be seen who will be leading Everton's press, however. Cenk Tosun has started all five matches upfront, and while he's managed a couple of assists, he's still yet to find the target. There's speculation that Richarlison could be used upfront here.

Another option, though, is Theo Walcott. He's enjoyed a good start to the campaign down Everton's right, but the threat of his speed against Arsenal's somewhat immobile centre-back pairing of Sokratis Papastathopulous and Shkodran Mustafi could be Everton's best approach here.

Silva has plenty of players capable of playing out wide: Richarlison, Ademola Lookman, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Bernard, who looked bright against West Ham. Like with Arsenal, fielding three quick players upfront might be the best approach against a defensive line that has looked disjointed.

Gylfi Sigurdsson will continue as the number 10, while Tom Davies could come into the centre of midfield after Idrissa Gueye and Morgan Schneiderlin didn't protect the defence particularly well last time out.

The defence continues to be a real concern. Jonjo Kenny and Lucas Digne flew forward effectively last weekend but in doing so they continually exposed Everton's centre-backs. The raw materials are there: Mason Holgate is a talented defender, as is Kurt Zouma But these players have no relationship with one another, and there are far too many gaps for opposition strikers to sprint into.

I fancy goals here, with both sides better going forward than they are defensively. I'll back over 3.5 goals at 2.26/5.

The Betfair Trader's View - Alan Thompson

Everton have a terrible record when they travel to Arsenal, the Gunners are unbeaten in 24 home matches against their opponents in all competitions, winning 20 and drawing four. The fact that the Toffees haven't kept a clean sheet yet this campaign suggests to me that they could be in trouble again here.

Arsenal may have leaked a couple of goals on Thursday evening against a weak opponent at home in the Europa League but I am not expecting there to be any such issues in this Premier League fixture. That being the case the 1.51/2 available in the Match Odds market actually looks a decent price to me.

When Arsenal's match odds price at home has been between 1.42/5 and 1.68/13 they have won all of their last 18 fixtures, including beating today's opponents three times in that sequence (3-1, 2-1 and 2-0). Rather than taking the 1.51/2 in the Match Odds market, I would rather look to play in the Asian Handicap market, and will be backing Arsenal -1.0 & -1.5 at anything around evens.

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