English Premier League

The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Brighton

Alexandre Lacazette
Alex Lacazette grabbed two goals in the midweek win over Valencia

"Few other Premier League teams happily defend as deep as Brighton, with a large part of their defensive plan being about Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy getting in last-ditch blocks."

Brighton travel north to the Emirates for a match that could be crucial at both ends of the table. Michael Cox and Alan Thompson preview the action...

Arsenal v Brighton
Sunday 16:30, Sky Sports Premier League.
Match Odds: Arsenal 1.42/5, Brighton 9.617/2, The Draw 5.14/1.

On paper this should be a simple home victory for Arsenal, who have the third-best home record in the Premier League this season, behind the two title challengers.

Complex situations for both sides

But this is an awkward game for the Gunners, sandwiched between the two legs of the Europa League semi-final against Valencia. Arsenal will take a two-goal lead to Spain after Thursday's 3-1 victory courtesy of two goals from Alex Lacazette and a last-minute goal from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, but they conceded plenty of chances on Thursday night.

For Brighton, this game's significance depends upon how Cardiff fare at home to Crystal Palace on Saturday night. When you consider goal difference, Cardiff effectively require a victory to keep their survival hopes alive - and it's worth remembering that plenty of Palace fans wouldn't mind their side losing, to put their rivals Brighton under serious pressure. But if Palace get a result, Brighton are safe.

Emery to rest players?

With that Valencia game in mind, you might expect Emery to rest players here - but the last time he tried that, things went disastrous in the 3-2 home defeat to Crystal Palace. The likes of Carl Jenkinson, Mohamed Elneny and Konstantinos Mavropanos simply didn't look good enough and all three were hauled off in a defensive horrorshow for the Gunners. Therefore, we're likely to see something similar to the first team here.

There will be changes. Bernd Leno will come in for Petr Cech in goal, while Laurent Koscielny was badly struggling with a muscle injury and therefore Nacho Monreal is likely to start. Lucas Torreira will expect to come into the midfield, probably in place of Matteo Guendouzi, while further forward Alex Iwobi and Henrikh Mkhitaryan will probably also start.

The desire to start those two means Emery could change system, from the 3-4-1-2 he used in midweek to more of a 3-4-2-1, with Iwobi and Mkhitaryan floating between a lone striker, either Aubameyang or Lacazette.

Otherwise, there aren't too many options for Emery. Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Sead Kolasinac will continue as the wing-backs and Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Shkodran Mustafi will be in defence.

Brighton to sit deep

Regardless of whether Brighton need a result here, Chris Hughton's side will be cautious. Few other Premier League teams happily defend as deep as Brighton, with a large part of their defensive plan being about Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy getting in last-ditch blocks. They'll be terrified of the speed of Arsenal's forwards, and will defend close to the penalty box whenever possible.

Hughton is traditionally a 4-4-2 man but has modified his system and played more of a 4-5-1 at times this season. He reverted to 4-4-2 for last weekend's home draw with Newcastle, but against more testing opposition, expect Brighton to beef up the midfield.

That might mean Pascal Gross deployed as a third central midfielder alongside Dale Stephens and Beram Kayal. Although he excelled in a number 10 role last season, Gross has more regularly played deeper this season, and the absence of Davy Propper means Hughton is a little stretched in that zone.

Out wide, Anthony Knockaert is back from suspension and Solly March might also fancy his chances of a start on the opposite flank, although the counter-attacking plans means Jurgen Locadia might be a better option on the left for his sheer speed.

Upfront, this might not be a game for Glenn Murray, with Florin Andone more mobile and better at chasing passes in behind. Brighton won't attack often, but Mustafi and Sokratis have errors in them.

I fancy Arsenal, but with their fatigue from midweek combined with Brighton's stubbornness, it might well take a while for them to make the breakthrough. I'll back Draw / Arsenal in Half-Time / Full-Time at 4.03/1.

The Betfair Trader's View - Alan Thompson

Arsenal have lost three straight Premier League matches in their question to finish inside the top four, conceding nine goals in the process, and another loss here would close that route and leave their only qualification hope by winning the Europa League. You would expect Manchester United to beat Huddersfield and that would put them above Arsenal and if Chelsea beat Watford, then the task is near impossible as Unai Emery’s side head to Burnley on the final day, and their away from is diabolical.

Despite their recent form the Gunners really should get the job done here, they have won by two or more goals in eight of their last 11 home matches, while Brighton have lost by two or more goals in five of their eight trips to top-six teams and Arsenal have won all their home matches against bottom-six teams.

Once again we saw the defensive fragility of the Gunners in midweek against Valencia and with Brighton still not mathematically clear of Cardiff in the relegation battle, there is every reason to expect them to attack here. The Seagulls scored in five consecutive away games, but since then Brighton have gone cold and failed to score in their last three.

Arsenal have scored in every home game since their opening day defeat against Manchester City (2-0) and in 14 of the remaining 17 games at The Emirates they have scored at least twice.

I am backing Arsenal/Yes in the Match Odds and Both teams to Score market at 3.505/2 although an alternative would be Arsenal -1.0 & -1.5 in the Asian handicap at 2.001/1.

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