Arsenal v Brighton
Sunday 16:30, Sky Sports Premier League.
Match Odds: Arsenal 1.42/5, Brighton 9.617/2, The Draw 5.14/1.
On paper this should be a simple home victory for Arsenal, who have the third-best home record in the Premier League this season, behind the two title challengers.
Complex situations for both sides
But this is an awkward game for the Gunners, sandwiched between the two legs of the Europa League semi-final against Valencia. Arsenal will take a two-goal lead to Spain after Thursday's 3-1 victory courtesy of two goals from Alex Lacazette and a last-minute goal from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, but they conceded plenty of chances on Thursday night.
For Brighton, this game's significance depends upon how Cardiff fare at home to Crystal Palace on Saturday night. When you consider goal difference, Cardiff effectively require a victory to keep their survival hopes alive - and it's worth remembering that plenty of Palace fans wouldn't mind their side losing, to put their rivals Brighton under serious pressure. But if Palace get a result, Brighton are safe.
Emery to rest players?
With that Valencia game in mind, you might expect Emery to rest players here - but the last time he tried that, things went disastrous in the 3-2 home defeat to Crystal Palace. The likes of Carl Jenkinson, Mohamed Elneny and Konstantinos Mavropanos simply didn't look good enough and all three were hauled off in a defensive horrorshow for the Gunners. Therefore, we're likely to see something similar to the first team here.
There will be changes. Bernd Leno will come in for Petr Cech in goal, while Laurent Koscielny was badly struggling with a muscle injury and therefore Nacho Monreal is likely to start. Lucas Torreira will expect to come into the midfield, probably in place of Matteo Guendouzi, while further forward Alex Iwobi and Henrikh Mkhitaryan will probably also start.
The desire to start those two means Emery could change system, from the 3-4-1-2 he used in midweek to more of a 3-4-2-1, with Iwobi and Mkhitaryan floating between a lone striker, either Aubameyang or Lacazette.
Otherwise, there aren't too many options for Emery. Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Sead Kolasinac will continue as the wing-backs and Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Shkodran Mustafi will be in defence.
Brighton to sit deep
Regardless of whether Brighton need a result here, Chris Hughton's side will be cautious. Few other Premier League teams happily defend as deep as Brighton, with a large part of their defensive plan being about Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy getting in last-ditch blocks. They'll be terrified of the speed of Arsenal's forwards, and will defend close to the penalty box whenever possible.
Hughton is traditionally a 4-4-2 man but has modified his system and played more of a 4-5-1 at times this season. He reverted to 4-4-2 for last weekend's home draw with Newcastle, but against more testing opposition, expect Brighton to beef up the midfield.
That might mean Pascal Gross deployed as a third central midfielder alongside Dale Stephens and Beram Kayal. Although he excelled in a number 10 role last season, Gross has more regularly played deeper this season, and the absence of Davy Propper means Hughton is a little stretched in that zone.
Out wide, Anthony Knockaert is back from suspension and Solly March might also fancy his chances of a start on the opposite flank, although the counter-attacking plans means Jurgen Locadia might be a better option on the left for his sheer speed.
Upfront, this might not be a game for Glenn Murray, with Florin Andone more mobile and better at chasing passes in behind. Brighton won't attack often, but Mustafi and Sokratis have errors in them.
I fancy Arsenal, but with their fatigue from midweek combined with Brighton's stubbornness, it might well take a while for them to make the breakthrough. I'll back Draw / Arsenal in Half-Time / Full-Time at 4.03/1.