Tunisia v France: Mbappe 5/1 to achieve what he did v Denmark

Alexander Boyes
30 November 2022
3:00 min read

Deschamp will make changes but stick with Mbappe

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Tunisia take on France in the final Group C match with Les Blues already through to the knockout stages. Tunisia have to win to stand any chance of joining them, which may open the door for Mbappe to run riot. He's boosted to 5/1 to have four shots on target, despite having had 13 shots in Qatar already...

Mbappe has had 13 shots in two games so far
Two goals and four on target v Denmark
Seven shots alone v Australia
Thuram in for Giroud, and features in 12/1 Bet Builder
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France now the 11/2 second favourites

Whilst they haven't officially won Group D, France have won Group D. Even a shock defeat to Tunisia wouldn't stop Les Blues from progressing as group winners, unless Australia overturns a six-goal swing.

Essentially, France have done what they were supposed to do at this early stage, despite their mountain of injury issues.

They are now only behind Brazil (5/2) in the outright winner market on the Betfair Sportsbook at 11/2, though if Argentina progress in the position they currently sit in Group C - second - they may somehow draw Messi & co at the Last-16 stage.

However, this did happen in 2018, when France won 4-3 on way to winning the trophy.

Back France to retain the World Cup @

11/2

Tunisia can still qualify for the Last-16

It's an outside chance, but at 16/1, Tunisia still can make it to the knockout stages of the 2022 World Cup, despite failing to score and having only one-point after two games.

Should they beat France - priced at 13/2 - and Australia fail to beat Denmark, it may come down to goal difference, which gives the African side a sniff.

It's been a great few days for African nations with Morocco beating Belgium, Ghana beating South Korea and Cameroon fighting to a 3-3 draw with Serbia, so the inspiration is there for the Tunisians.

Back Tunisia to qualify for the Last-16 @

16/1

Tunisia v France Betting

At 4/9, France are heavy-odds on favourites, and rightfully so, having won each of their last six World Cup games heading back to 2018. It is their longest ever winning streak in World Cup history, and their form cannot be underestimated.

All about Kylian Mbappe

They also possess, who else of course, Kylian Mbappe, the current favourite for the Golden Boot trophy at 23/10, and at the time of writing, the joint-stop scorer with Enner Valencia with three goals.

Mbappe is lighting up this World Cup, and also has an assist to his name, meaning currently no player has had a hand in more World Cup goals than the young Frenchman (4), the same as Bruno Fernandes.

He has the highest xG (2.3) and also the highest number of shots per 90 (6.5) at the tournament so far, whilst only Gue-Sung Cho (3.4) is averaging more shots on target per 90 than the Frenchman (2.5).

If you hate stats you'll hate that bombardment, until you see the boosted bet I am going with for this match.

Back Kylian Mbappe to win the Golden Boot @

23/10

Betfair has generously boosted Mbappe to have four or more shots on target to 5/1, despite him having 13 attempts across his previous two games - seven v Australia and six v Denmark.

Mbappe is here for the Golden Boot, and will expect to be playing. Tunisa have got nothing to lose - they have to win - so there is going to be space and counter opportunities for France, and who better to seize that green grass than Kylian Mbappe.

12/1 Bet Builder

If you're looking for a Bet Builder on this game - perhaps one of your free £5 bets if you placed a £5 Bet Builder on Tuesday, then how about this below?

Olivier Giroud is set to be rested for Marcus Thuram, who has 10 goals in 15 league games this season, who will be looking to make his mark at this tournament.

Tunisia's Youssef Mskani meanwhile is averaging the third most shots per 90 in the World Cup so far (4.8), and is set to play 90 minutes v France.

We then move to the corners market, and whilst over 10.5 sounds a lot, there were 20 when Tunisia played Denmark on MD1. France's game with Denmark generated 10, but for the reasons outlined above, I think this game should produce more attacking moments, and therefore more corners.

Thuram to score, Mskani 1+ shots on target & Over 10.5 corners @

12/1